Melaka heads to polls as Anwar's PH faces BN-PN pact in crucial test of Malay support

Asia

Close to 700,000 voters will pick from 79 candidates vying for the 28 seats on polling day this Saturday (Nov 14).

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14 Nov 2026 06:00AM

KUALA LUMPUR: Melaka voters heading to the polls on Saturday (Nov 14) will be faced with familiar choices and alliances based on past winning formulas.

Barisan Nasional (BN) and Perikatan Nasional (PN) will again contest this election in an official pact, closing ranks once more to avoid splitting the Malay-Muslim vote.

In a similar alliance, both coalitions won the Negeri Sembilan polls on Aug 1 convincingly, despite being on different sides of the aisle at the federal level.

Observers say that the pact is once again likely to consolidate the crucial Malay vote at the expense of Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim’s Pakatan Harapan (PH) coalition, which has been facing growing voter disenchantment.

But PH is also testing an informal alliance with Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia (Bersatu) for the first time since Bersatu pulled out of PH in 2020, in hopes that Bersatu could still capture some Malay votes. Bersatu was a key PH component when the coalition defeated BN in the 2018 general election.

During the previous Melaka state election in 2021, BN secured 21 seats, whereas PH obtained five seats and PN claimed two. 

To form the government in Melaka, parties need to win 15 of the 28 seats in the state legislative assembly.

Close to 700,000 voters will pick from 79 candidates vying for the 28 seats – comprising straight fights in 11 constituencies, 11 three-cornered contests, and six four-cornered contests. 

PH will contest in 24 seats, while Malay-led political party Bersatu has fielded candidates in seven seats.

BN, Anwar’s partner in the federal unity government, will contest 23 seats in a partnership with PN, which will contest the remaining five seats.

Parti Bersama Malaysia (Bersama) - a splinter party of Anwar's Parti Keadilan Rakyat (PKR) - will contest 16 seats in Melaka.

Another convincing victory in Melaka for BN-PN could see the pact push harder for an early general election, in hope of sustaining its political momentum.

Malaysia’s next general election must be held by February 2028.

Anwar, however, has no incentive to dissolve parliament early when his coalition is facing challenges, said analysts. 

Driven by the consolidation of Malay votes, high morale in the campaign machinery and strong approval of the state government, the BN - PN alliance holds a commanding lead in 24 seats, according to reputable pollster ILHAM Centre on Friday.

PH remains safe only in two seats, while another two seats would be closely contested, it added. 

“The BN - PN narrative is anchored in identity politics that resonates strongly with the Malay electorate," it said in a statement.

Political analyst James Chin said in a Facebook post on Thursday that he expects the “Malay tsunami” of BN-PN to win at least 24 of the 28 seats in Melaka.

“Bro Anwar (is) in big trouble,” he wrote.

THE NAJIB FACTOR

Adding to this trouble is the start of former premier Najib Razak’s house arrest, days before polling in Melaka.

The issue has reopened political fault lines between PH and BN ahead of polling day, in another blow for the already shaky partnership in the federal unity government.

Leaders from both coalitions have been trading barbs on the issue, with United Malays National Organisation (UMNO) leaders accusing those questioning the king’s partial pardon as disrespecting the royal institution.

UMNO is the lynchpin party of BN.

Political scientist Syaza Shukri told The Sun that Najib’s return could revive divisions between PH supporters, who may be unhappy with the outcome, and BN supporters, who could view it as another political victory for UMNO and its former president.

But she cautioned against assuming that the ruling would translate directly into stronger support for BN in Melaka, as Najib’s influence remains more significant at the national party level.

Political analyst Azizah Harun told The Star that the Najib issue could influence voting patterns in Melaka, particularly in urban seats where corruption tends to be a more prickly topic.

But sections of the rural electorate could interpret the issue differently, by viewing it through the lens of respect for royal authority, she said.

Azmi Hassan, a senior fellow at the Nusantara Academy for Strategic Research, told CNA that Najib’s house arrest would be a boon for UMNO’s campaign in Melaka, and at the same time a bane for PH, especially its Chinese-majority Democratic Action Party (DAP) component.

“I believe UMNO supporters will come out in droves, while the number of PH voters will reduce,” he said.

CLOSE CONTESTS

Of Melaka’s 28 state seats, 23 are Malay-majority constituencies, comprising 12 seats with over 70 per cent of Malay voters and another 11 with a 50 per cent to 69 per cent Malay electorate.

The remaining five constituencies comprise three Chinese-majority seats - two with over 70 per cent Chinese voters and one between 50 per cent and 69 per cent - as well as two mixed seats.

With the BN-PN pact widely expected to consolidate Malay votes in the Malay-majority seats, the focus turns to several constituencies with a more evenly mixed racial composition previously won by PH, BN or PN.

Local media platform Free Malaysia Today identified the state constituency of Bukit Katil as one that is most closely watched, with PH’s Adly Zahari - a former chief minister from May 2018 to March 2020 - squaring off against three opponents in his attempt to get a third term as Bukit Katil assemblyman.

A defeat for Adly in this seat will deal a heavy blow to PH.

Another seat to watch is Ayer Keroh, where Chinese voters make up 46 per cent of the electorate and Malays coming in a close second at 44 per cent.

The seat has been held by DAP since 2008, though an increase in the number of Malay voters over the years means BN-PN could defeat DAP in a key stronghold, FMT reported.

Finally, Bemban is one of four seats where PH and Bersatu have avoided a direct clash, in what analysts have described as a way to test whether a partnership will reap dividends in future elections.

Bemban, where Malays account for 62 per cent of the electorate, followed by the Chinese (19.7 per cent) and Indians (17 per cent), has changed hands several times. BN lost it to PH in 2018, which then lost it to Bersatu in the 2021 polls.

Incumbent assemblyman Yadzil Yaakub, formerly of Bersatu, is contesting under the PN banner this time around.

While Bersatu’s overall momentum is weaker than before, it could still influence the result in multi-cornered contests if it takes a decent share of Malay votes, Malaysiakini reported.

YOUTH VOTE, BREAD-AND-BUTTER ISSUES

Another group worth paying attention to is the youths.

According to Election Commission data, voters aged 18 to 39 make up 325,047, or 47.34 per cent of Melaka's 687,697 registered voters.

This comprises 41,138 voters aged 18 to 20, 135,687 voters aged 21 to 29 and 148,222 voters aged 30 to 39.

With almost half the electorate aged below 40, their choices could prove decisive, particularly in closely contested seats, New Straits Times reported.

Employment, income, housing, education and the cost of living are among the issues likely to resonate with this group.

Both sides have rolled out initiatives for younger voters.

PH proposed allocating 30 per cent of local authority contracts to youths, while BN and PN suggested expanding economic opportunities and improving community well-being.

Universiti Sains Malaysia political analyst Sivamurugan Pandian told The Star that the Melaka campaign had no major wave or dominant national narrative, with local bread-and-butter issues still dominant.

He expects a turnout of 60 per cent to 65 per cent, and said outstation and younger voters would be crucial.

“The challenge is not voter registration but voter motivation. Digital campaigning may capture their attention, but physical mobilisation will determine whether they turn up,” he said.

Source: CNA/rv(ao)