Te Tai Tokerau could be the electorate to watch

Of Aotearoa's seven Māori seats, Te Tai Tokerau is probably the most contested and the hardest to call.

This sprawling electorate stretches 400km from Te Rerenga Wairua/Cape Reinga to the North Shore and even reaches deep into West Auckland, encompassing areas of deprivation and social malaise through to the well-heeled boom towns of the east coast.

One in three of its roughly 45,000 enrolled voters is aged under 35, making it one of the youngest electorates in the motu.

Why is it interesting?

The seat has switched hands regularly in the past, but the current contest is unlike any other before - so the past is no guide to what will happen on November 7.

The seat is currently held by Mariameno Kapa-Kingi, who set up her own Te Tai Tokerau party after an acrimonious split with Te Pāti Māori last year. She faces three strong challengers, all of whom have high profiles and leadership positions outside Parliament.

Also, Te Tai Tokerau voters are a savvy lot who know how to use their votes strategically. The outcome could have an outsize effect on the overall result due to the potential for overhang, whereby a party ends up with more seats in Parliament than its proportion of the vote would allow.

Recent polling suggests Hūhana Lyndon could - if the poll result is replicated on election day - make history by becoming the first Green candidate to win a Māori seat.

Who's standing?

Current MP Mariameno Kapa-Kingi, standing for her own Te Tai Tokerau Party, is hoping to hold onto the seat. She is a former chief executive of Te Aupōuri iwi who has strong support in the very Far North, but also in West Auckland where many votes are concentrated. She wrestled the seat off Labour's Kelvin Davis in 2023.

Willow-Jean Prime (Labour) is a sitting list MP who has previously contested the Northland general electorate, which she won in the "red tide" of 2020. This is her third term in Parliament but will be her first tilt at a Māori electorate. She is number seven on the Labour list, making her the party's highest-ranked wahine Māori.

Hūhana Lyndon (Green) is a first-term list MP and former chief executive of Ngātiwai Trust Board and Ngāti Hine Forestry Trust. She is known in the North as "Hui-hana" because she has a reputation for being everywhere and turning up at almost every kaupapa.

Aperahama Edwards (Te Pāti Māori) is the chairman of Ngātiwai Trust Board and co-chair of Te Kahu o Taonui, Northland's iwi leaders forum. He had a prominent role in last year's Hīkoi mō Te Tiriti and has been endorsed by former MP Hone Harawira, who briefly considered seeking the party's candidacy himself.

Also standing are Maki Herbert of the Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party and Karl Barkley of Your Pic Party.

National, New Zealand First and Act are not contesting the seat.

What do the locals say?

RNZ took to the streets in Kaikohe, Whangārei and the North Shore to ask voters on the Māori roll about the issues that mattered most to them, and who was likely to get their vote.

Gina-Maree Makiha, of Kaikohe, said her top issue was "absolutely" the cost of living, followed by homelessness and alcohol and drugs.

She said politicians had largely bypassed Kaikohe on the campaign trail so far, so she was doing her best to drum up some interest in the town.

"I'm really hoping that the whānau here in Tai Tokerau get to the polling booths. I just feel that there hasn't been so much presence around here in Tai Tokerau. I mean we see it on screen, we see it on social media, but I want to see the politicians out on the streets talking to the people, face to face. I haven't seen much of that at all, to be honest."

Like many people spoken to by RNZ, Makiha was thinking about splitting her vote.

"I'm looking possibly at Aperahama Edwards [Te Pāti Māori] and the Greens. I like what they're doing. They're proactive, they're out there talking to the people."

Just down the street at Bouquets on Broadway, the top issues for florist Karla Tawhai were the environment and the cost of living.

"Also, being in business, you're always looking for something that's going to help businesses improve or even be able to afford to hire somebody because at this stage, the way that everything is going with the economy, I can't even afford to hire someone. I can hardly even pay myself sometimes."

Tawhai not yet decided who to vote for.

"I am a bit worried about that because normally I have it in my head and already planned, but I'm really still unsure. There's too many other things on my mind just to do with being able to stay afloat. Plus I'm over all the palaver that happens in government, unfortunately."

Whangārei's Josh Ambler had a similar list of priorities.

"For me, the biggest issues are the cost of living, housing, and the environment. The impacts of how we develop the whenua and what that looks like for future generations is really important for me."

Ambler said he also planned to be strategic, splitting his vote between Te Pati Māori and the Greens - in the hope of creating an overhang and bringing about the change of government he wanted.

"The current government has really disenfranchised Māori on a range of things. And the impacts that they've had on Te Tiriti and the partnerships with Māori and all of that stuff has been quite devastating. I think they've done some real harm."

Kaikohe's Hilton Harris, owner of Māori apparel store Cuzy T Aotea Collective, was concerned about high unemployment and wanted more support for small businesses.

He believed the government focussed too much of its attention on the large corporates.

"I'd like to see more private enterprise in this town. How it was back in the late 80s, early 90s, when this town was thriving. Once you have private enterprise, you bring wealth back into the community, and that money circulates within the town."

Further south, on Auckland's North Shore, Sophie Farrell was pursuing a degree in engineering and Māori studies.

She was concerned about the coalition's approach to race issues and what that would mean for the future.

"Also with university funding from the government and cutting the fees-free, I think that's pretty bad. I think it's pushing people towards more manual labour jobs instead of high-level skill jobs, which are better in the long term for the country."

Roofer Dillon Coyle, who grew up speaking te reo in isolated Panguru, wanted to see more Māori in government.

He had supported Winston Peters in the past but with no NZ First candidate contesting Te Tai Tokerau, he was considering giving his electorate vote to the Greens' Hūhana Lyndon.

For him, the key thing was for Māori to "have each other's backs and uplift each other".

Also on the North Shore, Teri Samuel said she planned to vote for the first time in more than a decade.

With unemployment nudging record levels in the North, she said the government's top priority should be jobs.

"Give people a job so they can get a home, because it's all about the money right now. We need the money to move on. There's too many of us that are unemployed, and some of them [employers] won't take us because they need experience. But what about those that haven't got experience and need a chance to grow?"

Samuel said she was tossing up between Labour and the Greens, parties she said stood up for the poor.

"We really need somebody that focuses on us, our land, our country, especially for our future, our mokopunas, so we can leave something behind for them."

What do the polls say?

A Whakaata Māori-Curia poll released last week showed Green candidate Hūhana Lyndon on 24 percent support, ahead of Labour's Willow-Jean Prime (18 percent), Te Pāti Māori candidate Aperahama Edwards (17 percent), and Te Tai Tokerau Party's Mariameno Kapa-Kingi (12 percent).

However, it also showed 20 percent were still unsure who to vote for.

The poll surveyed 500 enrolled Te Tai Tokerau voters and had a margin of error of 4.5 percent.

Labour held the biggest share of the party vote (27 percent) with the Greens close behind on 25 percent. Te Pāti Māori registered 11 percent, NZ First 6 percent and National 4 percent.

A Mata-Horizon poll a week earlier reversed the positions of the Green and Labour candidates (23 percent for Lyndon, 27 percent for Prime) but the sample size was too small to allow any serious conclusions. The margin of error in that poll was just over 8 percent.