Pacific territories face major population declines by 2100, US Census projects

A new US Census Bureau report projects significant population declines in American Samoa, Guam, and the Northern Mariana Islands by the end of the century, prompting calls for greater political autonomy and decision-making powers for American territories.

The report, released on 5 November, projects American Samoa will lose 61 percent of its 2026 population by 2100, followed by Guam with 38 percent and the Northern Mariana Islands with 17 percent.

The US Virgin Islands is also expected to lose 41 percent of its population over the same period.

The Census Bureau attributes the projected declines to falling birth rates and persistent outmigration, with more people leaving than moving into the territories since 2000.

In the Northern Mariana Islands, the population has been declining since at least 2000, while American Samoa's decline began around 2010. Guam's population is not projected to begin falling until 2030.

The report also found that fertility rates in American Samoa and the Northern Mariana Islands have experienced some of the steepest declines, with the latter's average number of children per woman falling from 3.3 in 2016 to 2.0 in 2026.

Right to Democracy, a nonprofit organization advocating for democracy, equity, and self-determination in US territories, said the projections highlight the consequences of the territories' unequal political relationship with Washington.

Its co-director, Adi Martínez-Román, described the findings as a warning to territorial leaders.

"These Census projections predicting a continued dramatic loss of population in U.S. territories are a striking indictment against the status quo relationship with the federal government. Unilateral federal decision making does not serve our interests," she said.

"This report should be a wake-up call to elected officials in U.S. territories to demand a fundamental shift in the relationship with Washington, otherwise this displacement will continue."

Fellow co-director Neil Weare said the lack of political power was affecting the everyday lives of territorial residents.

"No one should have to leave their home and loved ones just to make ends meet or receive the medical care they need," he said.

The organization also expressed concern about proposed changes to U.S. Census procedures, warning that they could further weaken the collection of demographic data in the territories and among their diaspora communities.

Martínez-Román said federal agencies should improve data collection rather than introduce changes that could further disadvantage territorial populations.

Weare said the projected declines would likely attract far greater national attention if they involved US states.

"If these dramatic population declines were predicted for any state, it would be front page national news," he said.

"The fact it is not shows how the lack of political power contributes to the invisibilization of our communities."

The Census Bureau said its projections reflect current demographic trends and assumptions about future births, deaths, and migration, rather than guaranteed population outcomes.

The latest projections do not include Puerto Rico, whose population declined by 11.8 percent between 2010 and 2020.