New Zealand must be couragous and decisive in world without Trump, US analyst says

In a world without President Donald Trump New Zealand will have to show courage and decisiveness, says an American foreign policy and national security analyst.

Dr Zack Cooper, in the country as the midterm elections loom in his homeland, and giving lectures as the Sir Howard Kippenberger visiting chair, said these were two features of war hero 'Kip's' approach that were "incredibly important for New Zealanders today".

"Courage is needed in this world now more than ever, including from small countries," said Cooper, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute who also teaches at Princeton University.

"New Zealand will have to be remarkably decisive to have the effects that it can and should have."

It had a crucial role to play, he told an audience at Victoria University.

"We're in a more dangerous world, a world that is growing more multipolar, and also highly fragmented. This is not a world that rewards countries for sitting back quietly and seeing what comes."

The country came naturally to this more flexible role as it had always been set a bit apart from the US hub-and-spoke system, he said.

"But I think New Zealand will have to do it with courage and avoid passivity in this new world."

Being quiet while Trump had been on tariff hook had worked.

"But there will be a time post-Trump for very active engagement and that time is not far off," said Cooper who previously worked at the National Security Council and in the Office of the Secretary of Defence.

"What's so critical is the moment in which New Zealand is going to be able to effect outcomes are infrequent and they close quickly...

"Wellington has a crucial role to play in keeping the US headed in the right direction and reminding us of what our principles should be. That window may not be open now, but it will be open in the future."

Dr Zack Cooper, in the country as the midterm elections loom in his homeland, and giving lectures as the Sir Howard Kippenberger visiting chair, said these were two features of war hero 'Kip's' approach that were "incredibly important for New Zealanders today".

One thing New Zealand could offer as the US moved post-Trump to rebuild alliances, was expertise in the Pacific Islands that was sorely lacking in Washington, Cooper said.

Post-Trump, he believed there would be a huge push from US leaders to re-engage with big countries - Canada, Europe, India, Japan, Korea.

"It would be easy in that world for the Pacific Islands to be sort of forgotten by Americans. And I think that would be a mistake.

"And so I hope that that's a moment where we can see some decisive leadership from New Zealand to remind Americans why it's important to be here."

He envisaged a US pivot away from the Middle East and towards Asia, foreseen in a key speech by President Barack Obama 15 years ago but waylaid more recently, might resume.

It had been "shocking" that the debate about Asia had become about how much to pull back, he said.

Meantime, the US needed the Middle East less for energy now than in past decades, and Washington would struggle to make the case to spend billions rebuilding US facilities in the region struck during the Iran war.

"I think part of the challenge for Americans is the American president going forward is going to have to answer the question for Americans of why we are in the Middle East."