Māori voters strengthen wāhine voices as special votes hold key

Māori voters have strengthened the mandates of several wāhine Māori and increased support for Labour and the Greens, while special votes could still reshape parliament and determine who governs.

Preliminary results show Te Pāti Māori leading five Māori electorates and Labour two, compared with six seats for Te Pāti Māori and one for Labour in 2023.

Strong backing for wāhine Māori

Hana-Rāwhiti Maipi-Clarke has substantially strengthened her hold on Hauraki-Waikato, leading Labour candidate Kingi Kiriona by 10,441 votes. Her winning margin over Nanaia Mahuta in 2023 was 2,911.

In Tāmaki Makaurau, Oriini Kaipara leads by 7,498 votes. The late Takutai Tarsh Kemp won the electorate for Te Pāti Māori by just 42 votes last election.

Debbie Ngarewa-Packer remains ahead in Te Tai Hauāuru by 3,841 votes, compared with her 9,162-vote majority in 2023.

Fighting back tears, Ngarewa-Packer told Whakaata Māori her mother would have been happy to see her return to parliament, making the result especially meaningful for Te Pāti Māori co-leader following the death of her mother during the campaign.

Labour candidate Cushla Tangaere-Manuel leads Ikaroa-Rāwhiti by 3,132 votes. Mananui Ramsden leads Te Tai Tonga by 2,773, putting Labour ahead in an electorate Tākuta Ferris won for Te Pāti Māori in 2023.

Te Tai Tokerau remains the closest Māori electorate, with Aperahama Edwards leading Green MP Hūhana Lyndon by 436 votes - 8,484 to 8,048.

Waikato looking forward to continuing advocacy in Parliament

Rawiri Waititi has 13,080 votes to Tania Waikato's 10,806, a lead of 2,274. His final majority over Labour candidate Toni Boynton in 2023 was 15,891.

Waikato appears positioned to enter parliament through the Green list, where she is ranked 13th, with the party projected to secure 16 seats.

The lawyer brings more than 20 years of legal experience, including work for iwi and hapū and representing Māori claimants in urgent Waitangi Tribunal proceedings challenging government policy.

Speaking to Pūkāea she said her first act in Parliament would be karakia.

"The first actual thing that I'm going to do when I get to parliament is I'm going to do a karakia."

Waikato said she believed her tūpuna had placed her there for a purpose. She was looking forward to her maiden speech and continuing to represent her people.

Her prospective arrival follows a campaign in which she reported death threats and racist abuse, telling 1News that "casual racism" had become increasingly acceptable.

Waikato's concerns echo evidence heard by the Waitangi Tribunal's Mana Wāhine Kaupapa Inquiry in May, when Māori women in public leadership described racism, misogyny, stalking and threats of violence.

Former Wellington mayor Tory Whanau said sustained abuse contributed to her decision not to seek re-election, while Green MP Tamatha Paul described threats extending beyond online harassment to people targeting her at public events.

"The nature of the violence that I experience is not casual," Paul said.

Party votes shift towards Labour and the Greens

Support for Te Pāti Māori candidates has continued alongside stronger party votes for Labour and the Greens.

In Waiariki, Labour has increased from 42.90 percent in 2023 to 46.04 percent. Green support has climbed from about 5 percent to 37.43 percent.

Te Tai Hauāuru shows a similar pattern: Labour has risen from 40.91 percent to 46.10 percent, while the Greens have increased from about 8 percent to 36.60 percent.

The results follow campaigning by Te Pāti Māori encouraging supporters to split their votes between its electorate candidates and other parties seeking a change of government.

At least 18 identified wāhine Māori appear positioned to enter or return to Parliament across six parties: three for Te Pāti Māori, at least four for Labour, five for the Greens, one for National, two for ACT and three for NZ First. Their final representation remains subject to special votes and seat allocations.

Commission figures show 13,221 people were enrolled overseas in Māori electorates as of 1 October, compared with 6,891 at the 2023 election.

Waiariki has the largest overseas enrolment with 2.215, followed by Tāmaki Makaurau with 2,173.

Overseas ballots are special votes, excluded from election-night results. Their potential influence is particularly relevant in close contests such as Te Tai Tokerau.

Who will form the next government?

With all voting-place results reported, the Commission records Labour on 710,330 party votes, or 29.36 percent, and National on 706,680, or 29.21 percent.

The projected seats are National 42, Labour 36, Greens 16, ACT 13, NZ First 12, Opportunity seven and Te Pāti Māori five.

That produces a 131-seat Parliament, requiring 66 seats for an outright majority.

National, ACT and NZ First together have 67. Labour, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori have 57; adding Opportunity would bring that grouping to 64, still two short. These are possible combinations of seats, not agreed governing arrangements.

Current projections give National seven overhang seats and Te Pāti Māori four, adding 11 to the usual 120. Special votes could change that calculation.

An overhang occurs when a party wins more electorate seats than its party vote would normally entitle it to. It keeps those seats, increasing Parliament's size.

Official results are due on 27 November. Government negotiations could take several weeks, with the existing government continuing under caretaker conventions until a new administration is appointed.