Kiwis shut out of Anthropic IPO, while Aussies get a seat at the table

Analysis - Local retail investors will be excluded from the upcoming Anthropic initial public offering (IPO), although the AI giant is making sure investors across the Tasman have a route in.

RNZ read through Anthropic's 335-page (plus appendices) IPO filing with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) so that you don't have to.

Buried on page 329 of the submission under the heading 'New Zealand' is the following: "This document has not been registered, filed with or approved by any New Zealand regulatory authority under the Financial Markets Conduct Act 2013 (the 'FMC Act')."

It restricts access to the IPO to investment businesses, government agencies, large investors or eligible investors.

There are some quite strict definitions of those in the Act, but the long and short of it is that most of us aren't.

Meanwhile, across the Tasman, Anthropic is offering a dedicated route for retail investors by issuing a separate Australian prospectus.

But although local retail investors won't get the chance to eat at the buffet when the doors open, they will once the wedding party has had its turn.

NZ retail investors can't participate directly in Anthropic's IPO, but should be able to buy the shares on Nasdaq once they begin trading, provided their broker offers them.

This may, or may not, turn out to be a blessing in disguise, as pricing IPOs is very much an art form, despite those highly paid advisers saying there's plenty of science in it.

Speaking of price, that was conspicuously absent from the documentation submitted to the SEC overnight, as was a starting date for trading on the Nasdaq.

Figures of US$2 trillion have been bandied around, but that will be something Anthropic's A-list of advisers, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan and Citigroup, will have to ponder.

According to the Financial Times' analysis of the filing, Anthropic's revenue in the nine months to the end of September exploded from US$4.6 billion last year to US$33b this year, but a quarter of that came from just five customers, and 'just' 250 customers spent more than US$10 million.

Still, it may not matter in the end.

Although Anthropic says its mission is the responsible development and maintenance of advanced AI for the long-term benefit of humanity, it also warns on page 46 that "advanced AI systems could, if not developed, deployed, and operated with appropriate safeguards, oversight, and security measures, pose catastrophic or existential risks to humanity".