Election 2026: Coalition edges centre left bloc as early results point to big overhang

Voting is now over and tonight could spell the end for several high-profile political careers, with both major parties ending the election campaign at historically low levels of popularity.

As results roll in over the next several hours, all eyes will be on key battleground electorates to see who can survive - and whether potential kingmaker Opportunity can make it over the 5% threshold and grasp the keys to power.

Follow live as votes are counted, and access exclusive interactive graphics and expert analysis here.

You can also watch the NZ Herald Election Night Special hosted by Ryan Bridge with Katie Bradford at the top of this story.

The majority of polls leading up to election day have shown Opportunity securing at least 5% of the nationwide party vote, putting them in prime position for coalition negotiations.

However, with National Party leader Christopher Luxon repeatedly ruling them out as a potential coalition partner, the right bloc desperately needs to shore up enough party votes to govern without them.

Then there’s the potential of an overhang.

An overhang is when the number of electorate seats a party wins is greater than the number of seats it would be entitled to from its party vote.

National’s poor polling and potential to create an overhang has focused attention on the MPs from that party who might not make it back into Parliament on the list, including the likes of deputy leader Nicola Willis, Speaker Gerry Brownlee, Chris Bishop and Paul Goldsmith.

Several Labour MPs are also in trouble. Labour is likely to increase its caucus, but it will also win some more electorate seats, meaning there might not be enough list spots to return all the members of the current caucus who are standing again.

Those at risk include Priyanca Radhakrishnan and Shannan Halbert (ranked 18 and 19), Camilla Belich (23) and Former Revenue Minister and current revenue spokeswoman Deborah Russell (27).

Act’s Cameron Luxton and New Zealand First’s Jamie Arbuckle are ranked low enough on their party lists (12th and 13th respectively) to potentially be out of Parliament should the election go badly for those parties, although rising support for both parties, potentially as a result of the right’s vote-splitting strategy, means both have a good chance of making it back in.

The Greens’ strong polling means most of its caucus is expected to return to Parliament.

Te Pāti Māori is running a candidate-only strategy. This means that the MPs who are in or out of Parliament will be determined by whether the party’s candidates win or lose their electorates.

Party co-leaders Debbie Ngarewa-Packer and Rawiri Waititi seem likely to win their electorates, as do Hana-Rāwhiti Maipi-Clarke and Orinii Kaipara.

Ex-Te Pāti Māori MPs Mariameno Kapa-Kingi and Takuta Ferris are likely to lose their seats and leave Parliament.