El Niño could last until May 2027, raising drought fears in Northern Marianas

El Niño conditions could persist until May 2027, with the Northern Mariana Islands and Guam facing the prospect of a longer and more severe dry season, widespread drought, water shortages, and increased wildfire risks.

National Weather Service Guam warning coordination meteorologist Landon Aydlett said the weather phenomenon is expected to peak around December and January before gradually weakening in the following months.

"We anticipate El Niño conditions to continue through April and/or May 2027, with peak conditions around December-January then steady weakening around February-March-April," Aydlett told Marianas Press.

In its latest climate outlook issued on 13 November, the National Weather Service said there was a greater than 79 percent probability of a strong-to-very strong El Niño continuing through January to March 2027.

The outlook also placed the probability of a historically strong event exceeding previous El Niño episodes dating back to 1950 at 60 percent for the November-to-January period.

Aydlett clarified that El Niño extending into another calendar year is not unusual, citing previous events in 1982-1983, 1997-1998, and 2015-2016.

He explained that the first year of an El Niño typically brings wetter-than-normal conditions and increased tropical cyclone activity to the western North Pacific, while the following year generally experiences a longer and drier dry season.

The Marianas have already experienced several major typhoons in 2026, but Aydlett warned that the region is now transitioning into a potentially more challenging period of significantly reduced rainfall.

He said residents should prepare for conditions similar to the dry seasons of 1998 and 2016, when strong El Niño events affected the region.

Rainfall is expected to fall well below normal through the coming months, particularly from January to April, raising the likelihood of widespread severe drought during the first half of 2027.

Rota and Tinian could be particularly vulnerable because of their agricultural and livestock industries, while Saipan could also face water supply concerns because of its more limited freshwater resources compared with Guam.

"Water collection and conservation will be key in 2027," Aydlett said.

He warned that the risk of drought, water shortages, and wildfires would increase in the coming weeks and months as conditions become progressively drier across the Marianas.

The National Weather Service also reported that some Pacific islands and atolls were already experiencing water shortages as rainwater catchments began running dry.

[h[ Tropical cyclone threat

Despite the approaching dry season, Aydlett said the threat of tropical cyclones remains elevated through the end of 2026 and into early 2027.

He said there were no imminent tropical cyclone threats or indications of potential storm development at the time of his assessment, but the possibility of another late-season storm could not be ruled out.

Aydlett urged residents and government agencies to prepare for the prolonged dry season by conserving water, monitoring freshwater supplies, assessing potential vulnerabilities, and avoiding the burning of trash and debris.

He stressed that while a very strong El Niño increases the likelihood of severe weather impacts, drought and other specific outcomes are not guaranteed.

[REALATED] https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/pacific/2554667/cook-islands-agriculture-feels-the-heat-as-el-nino-dry-spell-bites