Consumer confidence down for October but some optimism in tough economic conditions

October consumer confidence is down but seen as resilient given economic conditions.

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence eased 2 points in October to 96.2 points.

Any reading under 100 was considered a negative, though October's level was 16 points above April's low.

"New Zealand consumers remain under the pump," ANZ Bank chief economist Sharon Zollner said.

"Fuel prices are extremely high, and broader inflation is running well ahead of income growth.

"The weak currency isn't helping, though export-focused sectors are benefiting."

Key points:

• The net proportion of households thinking it's a good time to buy a major household item dropped 10 points to -17%, as cost of living pressures dented spending plans.
• Inflation expectations (2 years ahead) eased from 4.5% to 4.2%, the lowest level since March 2025.
• House price expectations eased from 2.4% to 2.0%, their lowest level since July 2023. After a few false starts in recent years, consumers are increasingly negative on that front.

"In the absence of a housing upswing, a more meaningful lift in the consumer mood is likely to have to wait for an improvement in the labour market," Zollner said, adding a lift in employment was expected to be reflected in new weeks labour market data.

Zollner said it was good to see some optimism amid the data.

She said the outlook on expectations about personal finances a year ahead was solidly in the black, and had risen in each of the last four months.

"Indeed, one interesting feature of the data this month was a drop in house price inflation expectations to its lowest level in three years.

"After a couple of false starts in recent years, consumers seem to have an increasingly negative take on where the market is headed. That's bad news for some and good news for others."