Can National reclaim Tāmaki electorate after 2023 upset?

The Auckland electorate of Tāmaki - one of the three richest electorates in the country alongside Epsom and the newly created Wellington North - is an intriguing seat to watch in the November election for multiple reasons.

What's so interesting about it?

For the first time in New Zealand's electoral history, a major party has nominated a candidate of Indian descent to reclaim a traditionally loyal seat.

Historically, Kiwi Indian candidates were typically assigned hard-to-win electorates in which their party lacked a competitive track record.

The National Party was guilty of this in 2023, with all five National candidates of Indian origin losing their respective electoral seats.

Low list rankings and unexpected electoral wins for National ensured none of those five candidates made into the Parliament.

As a result, National hasn't had a lawmaker of Indian heritage for two terms now.

"Wider representation, particularly for New Zealanders of Indian origin, has been an issue with [the] National Party for the last few years," said Veer Khar, president of the New Zealand Indian Central Association.

In February, National announced venture capitalist Mahesh Muralidhar as its Tāmaki candidate for the general election.

Muralidhar also managed to secure a list ranking of 24 this time - a decent improvement on his 2023 ranking of 43.

"This election, a possible chance has been given to Mahesh Muralidhar … and we are hopeful that he will make it to the Parliament," Khar said.

"While NZICA does not want the ticket allocation to be based on ethnic basis, it definitely is aware of the poor mindset some parties have," he said.

"Just a name on the list does not show the intent."

A similar sentiment was expressed by Bhav Dhillon, former honorary consul of India in Auckland and managing director of construction company Cemix, who called Muralidhar's candidacy from Tāmaki - a traditional National Party stronghold - "significant with lots of meaning" for New Zealand's Indian community.

"A mainstream constituency has been given to a person of Indian origin," said Dhillon, who has lived in Tāmaki for over 15 years. "It is a clear signal and messaging that [the] Indian community across New Zealand has well and truly arrived."

A closer look at past elections explains why Tāmaki is as blue as it comes.

What has happened in previous elections?

Created in 1946, the constituency has voted Labour only twice.

Former Prime Minister Robert Muldoon secured the seat for National in 1960, representing the electorate until he left Parliament in 1991.

National's Clem Simich and Allan Peachey followed before Simon O'Connor held it from 2011 to 2023.

While Labour narrowly won the party vote (39 percent to National's 37 percent) in its 2020 election landslide victory, O'Connor has consistently garnered more than 50 percent of candidate votes.

That was until former ACT deputy leader Brooke van Velden campaigned hard for the seat in 2023.

She interrupted O'Connor's four-term reign, beating him by a majority of 4158 votes in what was considered a major upset for National.

But even then, National won the party vote in the electorate three years ago, with the party winning 52 percent to Labour's 17 percent. ACT secured just 12 percent.

An RNZ analysis suggested van Velden was able to capitalise on voter unease with O'Connor's conservative stance on abortion and other conscience issues.

O'Connor's defeat was touted as a failure of Christian conservatism in mainstream politics in the country, RNZ reported.

A not-so-subtle personal endorsement of the ACT candidate by Paula Bennett, former deputy leader of the National Party, created a "permission structure for Nat voters" to break rank and vote for van Velden, it quoted National Party member Liam Hehir saying.

Sudesh Jhunjhnuwala, chief executive of Sudima Hotels and Hind Management, said van Velden was "very visible" in the electorate and worked hard to win people's support.

Jhunjhnuwala, has lived in Kohimarama for 25 years, which along with Mission Bay, St Heliers and Ōrākei forms part of the affluent eastern bays with high-income households.

"I used to say we are an 'orphan seat'. National knew it is always going to win, and Labour knew it will never win," Jhunjhnuwala said.

"So, nobody tried hard until the last election," he said, adding that the energy on the ground is different this time with National, ACT and Labour all campaigning hard to entice voters.

"The last thing you want is your electorate to be taken for granted."

Who is standing?

With van Velden's retirement from politics and Muralidhar replacing O'Connor, the above factors seem no longer relevant - giving Tāmaki a fresh suite of candidates to choose from.

ACT has put up 2023 National list-only candidate and lawyer James Christmas, placing him seventh on its party list.

On current polling, Christmas is most likely to be a lawmaker next term even if he loses Tāmaki.

Labour's candidate is Max Harris, who is also a lawyer and author of a 2017 book titled The New Zealand Project, which he says was a call for a "return to value-based politics" in New Zealand.

Harris is ranked 29 on Labour's party list and, on current polling, might just sneak in even if he is unable to turn the electorate left.

Muralidhar's case is straightforward.

National typically performs strongly in electorate races and with current polling showing support below 30 percent, his chances of becoming a first-term lawmaker via the party list look slim given his ranking.

As a result, it looks like Muralidhar must win Tāmaki to avoid the same disappointment he faced in Auckland Central in 2023 when he lost to Green Party co-leader Chlöe Swarbrick by 3896 votes.

Green candidate Donald Mackenzie Mayo (list ranking 43) has already asked voters in the electorate to cast a vote for Harris.

Opportunity Party has put up Sacha Haskell (list ranking 31) as its candidate, while Ryan Pausina and Finlay Smith are standing as independents.

Realistically, though, it's a fight between Christmas and Muralidhar for the electorate seat, with Harris set to benefit if the right vote splits and he is able to consolidate left-leaning votes in Glen Innes, St Heliers, St Johns and the newly added suburb of Point England.

Harris' other challenge, as one Labour volunteer in Point England said, was to ensure party's traditional voters enrol no later than 25 October.

Unlike past elections, voters must enrol well before Election Day this year to have a say at the ballot box.

What do the candidates say?

Harris, who is a Rhodes Scholar and a former Supreme Court researcher, is confident of his chances.

"I believe we can win this time … as Labour has done well in pockets of this electorate in the past," he said.

"We even won the party vote here in 2020."

Cost of living woes due to rising food and fuel prices combined with a need for more public transport, longer waiting times in emergency departments and delayed access to GPs have emerged as national issues, but they appear to be just as relevant to voters in some sections of the Tāmaki electorate.

"That's why the next Labour government will offer a return to universalism in public services … getting us further along a free universal public healthcare," Harris said.

"Another step forward would be a more hands-on approach to the economy … an example of which is the targeted capital gains tax to redirect investment into the productive economy."

Harris wants the next Labour government to invest in services for people with substance abuse problems and mental health issues.

"I have heard this in Glen Innes and Point England repeatedly that the best thing we can do for young people at the risk of offending is to keep them out of the system," he said.

Christmas wants to focus on noisy vehicles.

"We have a huge problem in this area of noise from cars, especially in Mission Bay," he said.

"So, I have announced an ACT policy based on the feedback I have received from residents to crack down on noisy vehicles and increase penalties for drivers being a nuisance to neighbourhoods."

ACT's proposal would establish a fleet of relocatable noise cameras, introduce an objective and enforceable noise standard, and increase penalties for excessive vehicle noise.

"People should be able to sleep and enjoy their homes without having their street turned into someone else's racetrack," he said.

One local issue where there seems to be consensus across parties is housing intensification in the Tāmaki electorate that is out of sync with infrastructure.

"I must have door-knocked over 13,000 houses this year, and this has been the major issue in every conversation," Muralidhar said.

"We have challenges with our pipes, and parking availability. ... [Hence] I have already started conversations with senior ministers on what is the right policy for new builds in regard to parking.

"Crime was [also] an issue. … [That's why] I raised $15,000 for a brand-new community patrol vehicle in Glen Innes during this campaign."

Acknowledging there was a cost-of-living crisis in the country, Muralidhar said his "background [would] ... address that".

He is chief executive of Phase One Ventures, a venture capitalist firm that invests in New Zealand start-ups, and has worked at online graphic design tool unicorn Canva between 2015 and 2017.

The Kiwi Indian candidate credited Prime Minister Christopher Luxon for delivering on his election promise of getting a free trade agreement with India across the line this term.

Dhillon and Jhunjhnuwala, both of whom have good connections in the country's business sector, agree.

"The signing of the trade deal with India is an amazing outcome for both sides, and [the business community] is very positive about it," Dhillon said.

What do the locals say?

Auckland City Councillor from Maungakiekie-Tāmaki Ward Josephine Bartley, who was the Labour electoral candidate in 2008 and has lived in Tāmaki for two decades, highlighted the electorate's diverse nature.

"We have richest of the rich and we have areas of high deprivation," said Bartley, the first Pacific woman elected to Auckland Council.

"We hope the new MP is a champion of Tāmaki Regeneration - a social experiment which started years ago and would deliver 10,500 better homes into the community. It should not be left in the lurch."

She said water quality and sewage overflows in areas around Mission Bay, in addition to public safety in all areas of the electorate, were also issues being discussed this election cycle.

Reverend Joel Carpenter of St Mary's Church in Glen Innes who has lived in the area for six years wants the next Tāmaki MP "to represent the full flavour of the electorate".

"It has been a challenging time in this parish, especially the last year," Carpenter said.

"The demand for petrol vouchers, food, clothing, bedding and other essentials, including counselling support, have all increased hugely."

The needs of richer parts such as Mission Bay and Ōrākei were very different from the needs of the working class in Glen Innes and Point England, he said.

"We need someone who can represent those who are better off as well as those who have challenges due to lower incomes and not owing their own homes."