Pipeline outages delay 42.6m barrels of oil

Nigeria’s oil and gas industry deferred approximately 42.55 million barrels of crude oil and condensate in 2025, with the affected production carrying an estimated market value of $2.97bn.

This was mainly caused by pipeline failures, terminal disruptions, equipment breakdowns and maintenance activities continued to constrain output.

The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission disclosed this in its 2025 annual report, which showed that an average of 116,563 barrels per day was deferred during the year, representing crude oil and condensate that operators could not produce as scheduled owing to operational and infrastructure challenges.

Deferred production is crude that could not be produced or evacuated at the planned time because of operational problems, pipeline outages, maintenance, terminal limitations and other disruptions. Some of the barrels may be recovered later, but prolonged deferment can reduce immediate export earnings and government revenue.

An analysis of the monthly figures showed that October recorded the highest daily deferment of 172,761 barrels, followed by December with 169,786 barrels and March with 169,856 barrels per day.

July recorded the lowest deferment at 25,780 barrels per day.

The October figure was 146,981 barrels, or 570.1 per cent, higher than July’s, indicating a significant deterioration in production performance during the period.

The estimated $2.97bn value was calculated by applying the monthly average prices of Nigeria’s Bonny Light crude grade to the corresponding deferred production volumes.

United Capital’s 2025 Economic Review and 2026 Outlook put the average Bonny Light price at $70.88 per barrel in 2025, down from $82.40 in 2024, representing a 14 per cent decline.

The estimate represents the indicative gross market value of the deferred barrels and not confirmed revenue lost by the Federal Government or oil companies, as some deferred production could be recovered later.

The NUPRC report identified pipeline outages, particularly on the Trans Niger Pipeline, Nembe Creek Trunk Line and Trans Forcados Pipeline, as the most prevalent causes of production deferment during the year.

It stated, “The most prevalent reason for deferment during the year was outage of key pipelines (TNP, NCTL & TFP), technical and operational challenges such as planned maintenance, vessel/tanker loading delay at terminal leading to shut-in of wells also contributed greatly to deferment.”

The report’s findings highlight how Nigeria’s efforts to increase crude oil production and maximise earnings from its petroleum resources continue to face challenges beyond oil theft and pipeline vandalism.

Production deferment occurs when an oil company is unable to produce or evacuate crude oil at the planned rate because of problems affecting wells, production facilities, pipelines, storage terminals or export infrastructure.

Unlike oil theft, which involves the illegal taking of crude, deferment refers to production that is delayed or temporarily shut in. Although some of the affected barrels may be produced later, prolonged disruptions can reduce immediate export volumes, foreign exchange inflows and government receipts.

The January figures showed that the industry deferred 76,002 barrels per day, valued at approximately $190.37m for the month, using the average Bonny Light price of $80.80 per barrel.

The situation worsened in February, when daily deferment increased to 134,793 barrels, representing a 77.4 per cent rise from January. The affected volume was valued at about $290.99m.

In March, deferment climbed further to 169,856 barrels per day, a 26 per cent increase from February, with the estimated value reaching $391.76m, the highest monthly amount recorded during the year.

Although the figure declined to 113,132 barrels per day in April and 102,480 barrels in May, production disruptions persisted.

June recorded 55,445 barrels per day, while July dropped to 25,780 barrels before rising to 95,639 barrels in August and 115,081 barrels in September.

The October deferment of 172,761 barrels per day translated to approximately 5.36 million barrels for the month, with an estimated market value of $354.54m.

November and December also recorded elevated deferment levels of 169,340 and 169,786 barrels per day, respectively.

The December figure represented a 123.4 per cent increase over January’s 76,002 barrels per day, underscoring the persistence of production constraints towards the end of the year.

Pipeline and terminal problems featured prominently among the disruptions recorded by the commission.