El Niño threatens Nigeria’s food supply, raises farm costs – IFAD

Nigeria and other countries across the Sahel are facing the threat of agricultural drought, declining crop yields and worsening food insecurity as the developing El Niño weather phenomenon threatens to compound the effects of rising energy and fertiliser costs, with potential losses to the global economy estimated at $11tn.

The warning was contained in a report by the International Fund for Agricultural Development, titled

‘Food Systems Under Stress: Building Resilience from the First Mile,’ unveiled on Monday at the opening of the United Nations Climate Change Conference, COP31, in Antalya, Türkiye.

The report identified a potential agricultural drought corridor stretching from Senegal through Nigeria to Ethiopia and Sudan, warning that suppressed rainfall during major El Niño events had previously caused localised rainfall deficits of between 20 and 35 per cent across the Sahel.

Such deficits, it said, could translate into yield reductions of 15 to 30 per cent for major rain-fed staple crops, including millet, sorghum and maize, threatening farmers’ incomes and food supplies.

“Expected Agricultural drought, Senegal through Nigeria into Ethiopia and Sudan, on a lower-confidence forecast. During major El Niño events, suppressed rains caused localised rainfall deficits of 20 per cent to 35 per cent across the Sahelian belt. This correlates directly with 15 per cent to 30 per cent yield reductions in key staple rainfed crops like millet, sorghum and maize,” the report read.

Although the forecast for the West Africa-Sahel corridor carries a lower level of confidence, the warning raises concerns for Nigeria, where millions of households depend on rain-fed agriculture and remain exposed to changes in rainfall patterns.

The report warned that the 2026/2027 El Niño could have substantial and long-lasting economic consequences, estimating that it could cost the global economy as much as $11tn over the next five to six years.

It explained that the estimate covered direct agricultural losses, damage to infrastructure and wider economic disruptions, including the effects of higher food and commodity prices, reduced demand and interruptions to international trade.

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The report added, “IFAD analysis suggests this EL NIÑO will have substantial and long-lasting economic consequences, costing the global economy an estimated $11tn.

“In 2026, small-scale producers face a global energy and fertilizer price shock, compounding active droughts and a potentially record-strength El Niño all inside a single planting season.

“The potential impact is particularly concerning because the climate event is emerging alongside an energy and fertiliser price shock, putting small-scale farmers under pressure during a single planting season.”

El Niño is a naturally occurring climate phenomenon associated with the unusual warming of surface waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. It alters atmospheric circulation and shifts rainfall and temperature patterns across different parts of the world, increasing the likelihood of drought in some regions and flooding in others.

The report said the 2026/2027 event was expected to peak between October 2026 and January 2027, with its consequences for agricultural production and rural livelihoods potentially extending beyond the 2027 harvest.

Beyond farming, the expected rise in temperatures could place additional pressure on Nigeria’s already fragile electricity supply system.

Higher temperatures increase demand for electricity as households and businesses rely more heavily on fans, air conditioners and other cooling equipment. A surge in consumption could further strain an electricity system that has struggled with inadequate generation, transmission constraints and frequent supply interruptions.

Drought also threatens water availability for irrigation and hydropower generation. Although Nigeria’s electricity supply is largely dependent on gas-fired plants, reduced water levels at hydroelectric facilities could further constrain available generation. The combination of higher cooling demand and pressure on generation could worsen electricity shortages, particularly during periods of extreme heat.

The IFAD report noted that the consequences of El Niño would reach small-scale producers through several interconnected channels, rather than failed rainfall alone.