Atiku’s exclusion may hand Tinubu wider 2027 victory – Group

File photo: Former Vice President Atiku Abubakar

The exclusion of former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar from the 2027 presidential race could turn what was initially projected to be a closely contested election into a wider victory for President Bola Tinubu, particularly in northern Nigeria, the Political Intelligence Group has said.

The group made the revised projection in a statement obtained by The PUNCH on Sunday, following a Federal High Court ruling in Abuja which nullified the leadership of the African Democratic Congress faction led by David Mark and invalidated decisions taken under it, including the May 25 presidential primary won by Atiku.

The development prompted PIG to revise its November election forecast, which had placed Tinubu ahead of Peter Obi and Atiku in a three-way contest expected to produce narrow victory margins.

Explaining the basis for the adjustment, the group, through its chairman, Lai Omotola, said, “The November Edition had projected a slim margin of victory among the three leading contestants, with President Bola Tinubu leading with a small margin and Peter Obi coming second and Atiku Abubakar in third place, all with close margins.”

But it said the court ruling had altered its assessment of the contest, particularly if the decision was upheld on appeal and Atiku was ultimately left out of the election.

“However, following the Abuja Court Ruling, the PIG has now projected a wide margin of victory for President Bola Tinubu, especially in the North if the court judgment is sustained and Atiku is finally left out of the ballot,” the statement said.

The group argued that the former vice-president’s possible absence could reshape voting calculations in the North, adding that “the majority of the northern voters would prefer that Tinubu served out his remaining four-year term rather than wait another eight years under an Obi presidency.”

The revised forecast represents a significant departure from the group’s earlier projection of a tight contest among the three leading contenders. It makes Atiku’s political future within the ADC and the outcome of the party’s legal challenge central to PIG’s assessment of the 2027 race.

However, the projection is conditional. The court ruling does not, by itself, establish that Atiku has been permanently disqualified from contesting the presidential election.

PIG said it would provide a fuller assessment in its December edition after the legal process had progressed.
“Against the backdrop of the outcome of the Appeal of the Ruling by the ADC, the PIG said its forthcoming Edition in December would reflect the latest development in full detail,” the statement added.