Why Israel's election is a referendum on Netanyahu

Next week, Israelis vote for the first time since 7 October, the deadliest day in their country's history.

Many here are describing it as the most consequential election since the State of Israel was founded in 1948.

Naftali Bennett, a former prime minister and candidate in the election, has called it an "existential moment".

In many ways, that’s because it’s being treated as a referendum on one man: Benjamin Netanyahu, the longest-serving prime minister Israel has ever had.

He has dominated Israeli politics for so long that many young people don’t remember an Israel before him.

But whether he gets more time depends on the extent to which Israelis hold him responsible for 7 October.

His supporters - including some who accept that he bears some responsibility - see a tough leader who is willing to do whatever it takes to keep Israel safe.

His critics say he has yet to answer for 7 October - not least because he has resisted fervent calls for an official inquiry into the security failings that led to the attacks.

The result will also shape what happens next in Gaza, where at least 74,000 people have been killed by Israel, the future of the Palestinians is unresolved, and a two-year war has prompted a genocide case at the International Court of Justice.

It will also shape the country's policy in the occupied West Bank, where rising violence by Israeli settlers has drawn intense international criticism - and sanctions.

But that is not what this campaign has mostly been about.

Here, the argument is over what Israelis call "security" - a catch-all term that takes in Hamas, Iran and other defence issues - and over who answers for a day on which around 1,200 people were killed and 251 taken hostage.

The protector

Security has always dominated Israeli elections, but 7 October has given it a particularly existential dimension.

Three years later, the questions have only got more urgent.

Voters want to know why 7 October happened, and whether a leader can stop it from happening again.

Mr Netanyahu, ever the showman, has long cast himself as Israel's protector.

Though his support has fallen significantly below where it was at the last election four years ago, many voters still believe the role suits him.

"He defends Israel the way I want it to be defended," Lilach Elgrably, who runs a dog grooming salon on one of Tel Aviv’s busiest streets, told RTÉ News.

But her enthusiasm has limits - he is, she said, "the best from the worst".

"Every election is very crucial, and every election in Israel is about security," Tal Schneider, a political correspondent with the Times of Israel, told RTÉ News.

But this is especially so, she said, following 7 October.

"I mean, I don't recall anything like that in the history of the Western world, where you have 1,200 people being butchered and raped and tortured within three to four hours", she said.

"So I think that day specifically, 7 October - it’s traumatised an entire nation, because many of the things were also broadcast live on Facebook Live and other Telegram channels."

For many Israelis, that’s part of what made the day so searing: they saw it happen in real time, streamed live by Hamas militants on social media.

For Ms Elgrably, 7 October confirmed a lifelong belief, one she ties to Jewish scripture - that, in every generation, enemies will try to destroy the Jewish people.

"The Jewish people are not safe," she said. "They will never be safe. Even in our country, we'll never be safe."

Who is responsible?

She does not absolve him. "Of course he has responsibility for 7 October," she said.

"But he also has responsibility for what's happened after."

For her, the years since 7 October have shown a leader willing to defy international pressure to defend Israel.

"It’s the first time in my life that I feel that someone is putting Israel first and showing the world that, with you or without you, we’re going to defend ourselves."

That is how he has held on: many of those who continue to support him distinguish between the 7 October failings and the response that followed.

"I think he was able to convince some of the people that he came to his senses on 8 October," Ms Schneider said.

"I'm not convinced by that, but, you know, some people are convinced by that."

But last month, his security record came under further strain.

Haaretz reported that the president of the United Arab Emirates had personally warned Mr Netanyahu 10 days before the attack that Hamas was planning a major operation.

The prime minister’s office called the report "an absolute lie" and said no such conversation took place. He has threatened to pursue legal action against the paper.

The UAE said it would not comment on "speculation regarding conversations between government leaders".

The report struck at the very heart of his defence.

Since 7 October, Mr Netanyahu has argued that he was failed by the country’s security establishment - that he was not warned. The Haaretz account alleges that he was told directly.

"His entire campaign shtick was, 'I’m not to be blamed for 7 October because nobody woke me up on the night before the massacre’," she said.

"It kind of ruined his entire message."

The war that isn’t on the ballot

The war that followed in Gaza has killed at least 74,000 Palestinians, according to its health ministry, and left most of its buildings damaged or destroyed, according to the United Nations.

It has drawn fierce international criticism and an arrest warrant, for Mr Netanyahu, from the International Criminal Court.

Yet here in Israel, the debate is less about what the war cost in Gaza. Rather it's about whether it achieved anything.

"You know, when you have the [Hamas] terror organisation still in power, you ask yourself," Ms Schneider said, "that very long war, what was it for, if it was unable to bring a result?"

It would be wrong to say Israelis are oblivious to the war, even if their social media algorithms scarcely serve them the devastation that their country has wrought.

But what dominates the debate here is the threat from Hamas, which feels a long way from the anger the war has stirred overseas.

"I don’t want to see a child being killed because of war," Ms Elgrabry said.

"It’s hard for me to see it in Gaza. It’s hard for me to see it in Africa, okay? But I don’t have responsibility for the children in Gaza. I’m responsible for the children in Israel."

She blames Hamas’s leaders for the toll in Gaza, saying they knew full well that Israel would respond with overwhelming force.

Two stalls, two verdicts

At an arts and crafts market in central Tel Aviv this week, it took minutes to find both camps.

Gidon Samuel, who sells Jerusalem stone art, backs the prime minister without illusions.

"Benjamin Netanyahu is like everyone, you know. Human beings have bad things and good things," he told RTÉ News.

He accepts that he bears responsibility for 7 October. But, for him, it's less important than what followed.

"I don't consider what happened in the past. I don’t care about it. I’m looking at the future," he said.

"Right now, who is the best leader that can lead Israel to a different place? He's the only one I think that can do it."

At the other end of the market, a woman who sells jewellery said she has had more than enough of Mr Netanyahu.

"I think it’s the worst government we ever had," she said.

She is among the majority of Israelis who, according to the Israel Democracy Institute, think he should go.

"I think he’s responsible and he needs to go. I mean, go to hell. I don’t know how else to say it."

An election night that may settle little

The numbers explain why neither side can relax quite yet. Likud, Mr Netanyahu's party, won 32 seats last time.

Most polls now suggest it will garner around 20, and most put the new centrist party Yashar, led by the former army chief Gadi Eisenkot, narrowly ahead of it. But neither of the two competing blocs is anywhere near the 61 seats needed for a majority.

That is why Tuesday’s election may not be decisive.

For one thing, the pollsters are struggling to assess the support of parties close to the 3.25% threshold.

If a few of them fail to cross that bar, their seats will go to other parties.

The most likely outcome is deadlock, and deadlock favours Mr Netanyahu.

If neither side can assemble 61 seats, he gets to stay on as interim prime minister, and he appears to understand that.

"His entire campaign is about… how do I get to be the interim prime minister," Ms Schneider said.

"Netanyahu is like really big on taking a day-by-day approach. He thinks, 'Let's just, you know, handle things for tomorrow and we'll think about next year next year’."