Tusk’s race to reform Poland meets wall of political resistance

Three years ago Polish prime minister Donald Tusk was returned to power in Warsaw on a reform mandate. Only now, a year before the next scheduled general election, has Tusk shifted his reform coalition into high gear.

From its contested court system to a fractious relationship with its Ukrainian neighbours, Tusk and his politically broad coalition faces a long list of political challenges as the election cycle ramps up.

Nothing exemplifies Poland’s polarisation quite like demonstrations in 20 cities this week after parliament approved two Bills to liberalise restrictive Polish abortion laws. One reverses a near-total ban on abortion introduced in January 2021, while the other decriminalises anyone who assists women seeking an abortion.

For the past five years abortion in Poland has been permissible in just two cases: a pregnancy resulting from a crime, such as incest or rape, or when it threatens the mother’s health or life.

The new rules, forbidding abortions even in cases of severe foetal abnormality, followed a 2020 ruling by Poland’s constitutional court judges. They were appointed in contested circumstances by the previous national conservative government of the Law and Justice (PiS) party.

Even after clearing parliament this week, however, Poland’s new abortion Bills are unlikely to be signed into law given vocal opposition from the PiS-aligned president Karol Nawrocki. Speaking after the vote, Nawrocki’s chief of staff said the president “supports the protection of life from conception to natural death”.

Anti-abortion and Catholic groups stepped up their protests at the Bills this week in Warsaw, parking “abortion vans” outside clinics, complete with graphic photographs and loudspeakers.

Also unhappy this week, though, were Polish women’s groups. They gathered in the rain outside parliament to denounce the Bills as “token gestures” that simulated reform in a play for the female vote next year.

“Nothing has changed really,” said Emilia Niemiec, manager of the AboTak abortion centre that provides women with advice and pills for a pharmacological abortion.

Nawrocki’s chief of staff, Zbigniew Bogucki, speaking after the parliamentary vote, said abortion was only back on the table because Tusk wants to “rehash ideological issues in order to cover up his incompetence in matters he should actually be dealing with”.

Chief among these, at least according to PiS opposition leader Jaroslaw Kaczynski, is the latest growing standoff over Poland’s constitutional court.

Outside its historic building in downtown Warsaw, PiS-allied protesters have held an all-weather vigil for weeks now, with signs both accusatory – accusing Tusk of being a “communist gangster” – and aspirational: “Make Poland Great Again.”

Last Saturday, Kaczynski appeared to thank about 1,000 supporters for defending the last institution he said had not been “captured” by the Tusk administration.

“The sun that rose in 1989/1990 has been extinguished,” said Kaczynski, a 77-year-old veteran of Poland’s transition from communism to democracy – and long-term nemesis of Tusk.

This constitutional court protest is the latest twist in a long-running drama over Poland’s highest court that began in 2015, when a Kaczynski-led government disregarded procedures to appoint political loyalists to the chamber. This triggered an eight-year rule-of-law standoff with European Union institutions.

Then in 2023 Tusk left Brussels, where he served as European Council president, and returned to national politics with a promise to correct the PiS-era reforms – in particular the judicial system – and end Warsaw’s war with the EU.

As in neighbouring Hungary, however, using legal means to undo illegal reforms in Poland has proven a complex and time-consuming minefield. “Imagine we meet up to play chess but my opponent then comes for me with a baseball bat,” said Tusk at a recent event in a nod to the blockade by president Nawrocki, a political novice and reformed football hooligan.

Nawrocki has refused to accept five of the eight constitutional judges backed by the current parliament, prompting an interim injunction by the European Court of Justice insisting the new judges work at the court.

The PiS-appointed constitutional court president disregarded that, prompting the Luxembourg court to reiterate a previous ruling: Poland’s constitutional court in its current make-up is neither apolitical nor independent.

After three years of stalemate in Warsaw – with court and coalition disregarding each others’ decisions – Tusk triggered a new round last month when he announced the appointment to the court of Maciej Berek, a close political adviser.

Though Berek is legally qualified for the role, Tusk’s move – criticised by independent NGOs – allowed PiS flip the narrative and accuse the government of attempting to pack the 15-judge court with loyalists.

With the election countdown under way, political analysts warn that Tusk stands to lose the most from the unresolved reform standoff, and populist right-wing parties have most to gain.

“Tusk’s key problem will be the mobilisation of a broad section of voters, especially young people and women,” said Jacek Kucharczyk, analyst with the ISP think tank, of the unresolved abortion row.

The constitutional court stand-off, meanwhile, is “disorienting for large parts of the public”, he says, in particular for undecided voters.

“They may stay at home during the next elections,” predicted Kucharczyk, “which will benefit the right-wing parties”.

As Poland enters the general election cycle, the prospect of another European country taking a right-wing turn has been complicated by the splintering of the Kaczynski PiS party and the rise of far-right extremist groupings.

In this shifting political landscape Nawrocki, already a favourite of Donald Trump, has emerged as a potentially key figure in uniting the right with more extremist parties.

Returning a right-wing national Polish government to power in Warsaw, this time with a more extreme political elements, would revive – and supercharge – rows with Brussels and end Poland’s, already cooling, approach to assisting Ukraine.

In a recent newspaper interview, Nawrocki showed his growing interest in day-to-day politics by praising far-right Polish leaders and disputing government claims of a growing security threat from Russia as scaremongering.

In a withering public response on X, Tusk thanked the Polish head of state for his “candour”.

Long-time watchers of Polish politics suggest Tusk, with a difficult coalition and uncertain election season ahead, has decided to go for broke and force a showdown with Kaczynski and Nawrocki on the constitutional court and more.

“Tusk seems to have adopted a mindset that it’s better to take action and suffer consequences than passively try to uphold the rules,” said Mateusz Mazzini, a Polish newspaper columnist and television news show host.

“The ruling coalition wants to deal with contentious issues now so 2027 can be spent entirely on mobilising its own electorate, not fighting fights Tusk risks losing.”