Democrats have an unexpected opportunity to seize control of the US Senate, with key races across several battleground states.
Republicans hold a 53-47 majority in the Senate, where Democrats would need to flip at least two seats in states that US President Donald Trump carried by double digits in 2024 to win a majority in the midterm elections.
As election day arrives, Democrats have a real chance at flipping the chamber, something that was considered a long shot at the beginning of this political cycle.
Here are the races that will determine control of the Senate.
Georgia
Democrats' top priority is to hold the seats they already have. That means protecting US Senator Jon Ossoff in Georgia and helping progressive Abdul El-Sayed hold an open seat in Michigan.
Donald Trump won Georgia by 2 percentage points in 2024 and Michigan by 1 point.
Mr Ossoff has been a juggernaut fundraiser, raising $98m (€84m) through to 30 June. He entered July with nearly $43m (€37m) on hand.
His opponent, US Representative Mike Collins, has raised only $7.4m (€6.4m) and reported $2.1m (€1.8m) on hand.
Recent polls show Mr Ossoff, a potential 2028 presidential candidate, with a double-digit lead over Mr Collins.
Republicans have outspent Democrats $17m (€15m) to $15m (€13m), but Mr Ossoff's campaign funds may be too much for Mr Collins to overcome.
Michigan
The Democratic establishment did not get its pick in Michigan. But embracing a progressive outsider is key to the Democrats' strategy to flip control of the Senate.
A Democratic loss in Michigan would require the party to flip five Republican-held seats to win a majority.
Mr El-Sayed narrowly defeated the establishment favourite in moderate US Representative Haley Stevens during the primary, putting him on a collision course with former US Representative Mike Rogers in what could be the tightest race for a Democratic-held Senate seat this cycle.
A bitter internal dispute saw Ms Stevens endorse Republican Mike Rogers rather than the Democratic nominee, Mr El-Sayed.
Mr Rogers released a 30-second ad recently in which he said Canada is not America's enemy, distancing himself from the president and his tariffs. "We need to end this tariff war," a narrator says. "Now!"
Former US vice president Kamala Harris has campaigned with Mr El-Sayed. Recent polls showed Mr El-Sayed leading by between 1 and 7 points.
Republicans have spent $86m (€74m) in Michigan's Senate race, more than double Democrats' $41m (€35m).
New Hampshire
Democrats are defending another open seat in New Hampshire, though this is a state Ms Harris won by nearly 3 points in 2024.
Democratic US Representative Chris Pappas is running against former US Senator John Sununu, who was ousted by Democrat Jeanne Shaheen in 2008. Ms Shaheen is retiring.
Mr Pappas has raised $15m (€13m) to Mr Sununu's $4m (€3.4m). The Democratic congressman also has a $1m (€0.9m) cash advantage over Mr Sununu.
But Republicans have helped close the gap for Mr Sununu, whose brother Chris was governor until his term ended last year and whose father, also named John, was a former governor and White House chief of staff for president George H.W. Bush.
Republicans have outspent Democrats in this race, $25m (€22m) to $12m (€10m).
Mr Pappas has maintained a consistent polling lead of 5 to 8 points in recent surveys.
Maine
Democrats' top offensive opportunity is in Maine, the lone state where a Republican incumbent is up for reelection in a state Kamala Harris won. Ms Harris carried Maine by nearly 7 points in 2024.
Senator Susan Collins has routinely distanced herself from Donald Trump and declined to appear in the state with him or Vice President JD Vance.
During a debate in October, Ms Collins, who voted to convict Mr Trump after he was impeached following the January 6 insurrection, acknowledged that she isn't the president's favourite senator and said he would not be coming to Maine.
But she did help Republicans pass their 'One Big Beautiful Bill' despite voting against its final passage, and Democrats hope voters will hold her accountable for helping confirm Brett Kavanaugh to the US Supreme Court, which led to the overturning of a federal right to abortion.
Democrats, however, have their own drama. Maine Democrats nominated progressive oysterman Graham Platner, who was pressured into withdrawing following sexual assault allegations, forcing the state party to stage a truncated process to name a new nominee. Mr Platner has denied the allegations.
Former Maine Senate President Troy Jackson, another progressive, emerged as Mr Platner's replacement.
But he began his Senate campaign this summer with no money. While Mr Platner had outraised Ms Collins, who chairs the Senate's Appropriations Committee, even he significantly trailed her $11m (€9.5m) in cash.
Republicans have poured more than $50m (€43m) into Maine to re-elect Ms Collins, nearly double Democrats' $26m (€22m). But recent polls show Mr Jackson leading by 4 points.
North Carolina
Republicans appear to have conceded North Carolina, where a top Republican super PAC has diverted resources to Kansas, a state that was not considered to be in play until recently.
US Senator Thom Tillis, a Republican Trump critic, did not seek re-election. Democrats landed a top recruit for the open seat in former North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper, while Republicans fielded former Republican National Committee Chair Michael Whatley.
Like many Democratic candidates, Mr Cooper has dwarfed his opponent in fundraising, raising $35m (€30m) with $21m (€18m) on hand.
Mr Whatley has brought in $11m (€9.5m) and reported $3.5m (€3m) in cash.
Republicans' $45m (€39m) in spending is almost $20m (€17m) more than Democrats'. Yet Mr Cooper has led in polls all through September and into October, some by double digits.
Mr Trump won North Carolina by 3 points in 2024.
Ohio
Ohio is one of four battleground states Mr Trump won by double digits in 2024. Democrats need to win at least two such states to win control of the Senate.
The Democratic nominee is former US Senator Sherrod Brown, who was ousted by Republican US Senator Bernie Moreno last cycle.
This time, Mr Brown faces US Senator Jon Husted, who was appointed to the Senate to replace Mr Vance when he left office for the White House.
The winner of the special election will serve the remainder of Mr Vance's term, which expires in January 2029.
Mr Brown has brought in $39m (€34m) and had $16m (€14m) in the bank. Mr Husted has raised $14m (€12m) with $9m (€7.8m) banked.
The race has become one of the most expensive Senate contests in the nation, with upwards of $200m (€173m) in outside spending. Republicans alone are responsible for $143m (€124m).
Both candidates have led in recent polls of this toss-up race.
Alaska
Mr Trump won Alaska by 13 points in 2024. It is also another double-digit Trump state that Republicans could lose. US Senator Dan Sullivan, the Republican incumbent, is running against former US Representative Mary Peltola.
Alaska has ranked-choice voting, a process in which voters rank their top picks rather than choosing a single candidate.
Voters will have four choices, including Mr Sullivan, Ms Peltola and another Dan Sullivan, a candidate Republicans have called a decoy in what they believe is an effort by Democrats to confuse voters.
Ms Peltola has outraised Mr Sullivan by $7m (€6m), but the incumbent has a $2.7m (€2.3m) cash advantage. Republicans have outspent Democrats in this race, $28m (€24m) to $21m (€18m).
Recent polls show Ms Peltola leading or tied with Mr Sullivan.
Iowa
Mr Trump's unpopularity, tariffs and the Iran war have put Republicans on defence in Iowa, where Mr Trump won by 13 points in 2024.
Republican US Senator Joni Ernst's decision not to seek re-election has made this an open-seat contest between Republican US Representative Ashley Hinson and Democratic state Representative Josh Turek, a two-time Paralympic gold medallist.
In September, Ms Hinson called for an "immediate end" to the Iran war in a social media post that said Iowans "shouldn't have to foot the bill at the pump or the checkout line for the war".
Ms Hinson, however, has repeatedly opposed Democratic resolutions in the House of Representatives calling for an end to the war.
Ms Hinson has a $4m (€3.4m) fundraising and cash-on-hand advantage over Mr Turek, and Republicans have spent $51m (€44m) to Democrats' $42m (€36m).
Recent polls show Ms Hinson and Mr Turek with narrow leads.
Texas
No Democrat has won statewide in Texas since 1994. James Talarico, a state representative, could break the cycle, though Democrats also thought the same about Beto O'Rourke and Colin Allred, both of whom lost to Republican US Senator Ted Cruz in 2018 and 2024.
Mr Talarico faces a historically weak Republican nominee in Attorney General Ken Paxton, but Texas is still Texas.
Mr Trump won Texas by nearly 14 points in 2024. Yet Republicans have already spent a staggering $210m (€182m) to hold the seat after runoff voters nominated the scandal-plagued Mr Paxton over incumbent Republican US Senator John Cornyn.
Mr Trump endorsed Mr Paxton in the runoff despite Washington Republicans' preference for Mr Cornyn, who was widely believed to have an easier path to victory in a general election.
Leaked audio has exposed daylight between Mr Trump and Mr Paxton, who privately told donors that the president's midterm convention hurt his campaign, which he said he has no control over because it is being run out of Washington, DC.
Democrats have only spent $39m (€34m) in the Senate race, but Mr Talarico has outraised Mr Paxton by $60m (€52m) and reported nearly $20m (€17m) more on hand.
Recent poll results have ranged from a tie to Mr Talarico leading by 6 points.
Kansas
The political environment has shifted in favour of Democrats so much that Kansas is now in play.
Republicans have diverted resources from North Carolina to shore up US Senator Roger Marshall, who in recent weeks has condemned the activity of Immigration and Customs Enforcement in his state.
Mr Trump won Kansas by 16 points in 2024, but the state has twice elected Democratic Governor Laura Kelly. And Republican leaders have publicly acknowledged the race is competitive and closer than they would like it to be.
Mr Marshall's opponent is Adam Hamilton, founding pastor of a Methodist megachurch.
Mr Marshall's campaign has outraised Mr Hamilton's by $2m (€1.7m), and Mr Marshall has $3.7m (€3.2m) more on hand. But Democrats have outspent Republicans, $7.6m (€6.6m) to $4.6m (€4.0m).
Recent polls show Mr Hamilton leading by between 1 and 5 points.
Source: RTÉ News
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