The Irish Times view on this week’s summits: Europe comes to Dublin

Harried Dublin commuters stuck in gridlock may not appreciate the fact, but Thursday’s European Political Community (EPC) summit will be the largest gathering of national leaders Ireland has ever hosted.

Conceived by Emmanuel Macron after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the EPC is an informal forum of almost 50 countries. Russia and Belarus are pointedly excluded. Thursday’s summit has the theme of a strong, secure and connected Europe. Leaders will discuss competitiveness, innovation and energy security.

Unsurprisingly, Ukraine remains a central concern. The summit takes place a day after US-brokered talks in Abu Dhabi between Ukrainian and Russian negotiators, from which European governments were excluded. Volodymyr Zelenskiy is expected in Dublin and will no doubt urge European leaders to keep money and weapons flowing, given the gaping € 70 billion hole in Kyiv’s 2027 budget. And the assembled leaders will doubtless be wondering what impact the Republican party’s drubbing in last week’s US midterm elections might have on the Trump administration’s stance on European security.

When Vladimir Putin ordered the invasion of Ukraine, he made two assumptions. The first was that Zelenskiy’s government would flee Kyiv and the country would swiftly surrender. That calculation proved disastrously wrong. The second was that the West would be too weak and divided to hold a common front. That theory is still being tested. But so far it too has largely been proved wrong, despite some European divisions and a volte-face by the US following Donald Trump’s return to the White House.

There is still considerable cause for concern. Ukrainians face another bleak winter under intensifying Russian missile and drone attacks. EU squabbles over support for Kyiv eased with the defeat of Viktor Orbán in Hungary’s general election in April. But the cost of that support, and the parallel surge in European defence spending, is adding to the political pressures on governments, not least in Germany and France. Irritation in some capitals at the Norwegian and Finnish leaders’ recent phone call with Putin showed how that strain can easily surface.

Few breakthroughs are expected this week. But in a forum intended for conversation rather than hard bargaining, the message will be that Europe’s leaders can speak with one voice. The next time the EPC meets, in Zurich next April, France’s presidential campaign will be at its height, and it is unclear whether Macron, the forum’s creator, will attend one last time before leaving office. The question of who succeeds him hangs over Thursday’s summit, and over Friday’s meeting of EU leaders. The streets of Dublin may be clogged this week, but all roads ultimately lead to Paris.