The Irish Times view on the electricity market: risks are being dialled down

The risks facing the Irish electricity system heading into the winter are markedly lower than they were a few years ago, when supply was on a knife edge. Eirgrid, which operates the network, said in its outlook for this winter that even on days of peak demand there should be a significant safety margin.

New power plants coming on stream, increased battery storage and the availability of emergency generation have helped to create more leeway. The contribution of renewables is rising and even solar panels on people’s homes are helping. Gas remains central to electricity generation and to providing emergency back-up. Temporary generators put in place in recent years – available when the system is under pressure – will be needed until 2028 or 2029, according to the regulator.

Energy security issues remain. Ireland is reliant on the UK for around 16 per cent of its electricity supply. Meanwhile, more than 80 per cent of Ireland’s gas is imported, via pipelines from the UK, though much of it originates elsewhere. The Government is planning an emergency storage facility for liquefied natural gas in Shannon, but it is unclear how quickly this will be delivered.

The energy transition – the planned increase in renewables and the phasing out of fossil fuels – remains difficult, particularly given the slow development of offshore wind. Even in an optimistic scenario, this is unlikely to provide any significant power to the Irish grid until into the 2030s.

Eirgrid will thus have to continue its balancing act on annual supply and – along with ESB Networks – get on as quickly as possible with the necessary investment in the grid. The State has committed extra funding and the regulator has given the go ahead. It is now, as in other areas of major infrastructure, all about delivery.

The taxpayer will pay for much of this investment. But some of the burden will fall on households and businesses in another way – through their energy bills. As well as wholesale prices, this is a key issue for competitiveness and affordability in the years ahead.