The Irish Times view on Fine Gael’s future: the paradox of power

Next March Fine Gael will set a record for the longest unbroken spell in government by any Irish party, overtaking the two periods of Fianna Fáil dominance from 1932 to 1948 and 1957 to 1973. But the parallel is misleading. Unlike those predecessors, Fine Gael has seen its support roughly halve since the 2011 general election, when it won 36 per cent of first preferences. In the most recent Irish Times/ Ipsos B&A poll it stood at 17 per cent.

At its ardfheis in University College Cork this weekend, the party will consider a renewal document intended to chart a way back. Its authors have reduced the question of what Fine Gael stands for to two words, stability and reform. That raises more questions than it answers – this is the party of change, it seems to argue, but also of no-change – and risks sounding exactly like the technocratic blandness some critics blame for the party’s difficulties.

In fairness, it does echo the two traditions that shaped Fine Gael in the 20th century: the cautious conservatism of Liam Cosgrave and the more progressive instincts of Garret FitzGerald. Whether either suits the mid-21st century is less certain, and where its troubled leader Simon Harris wants to steer it is even less clear.

For much of its history, the answer to what Fine Gael was came down to not being Fianna Fáil. That was always inadequate, and is now doubly so given that the two parties have been yoked together since the confidence and supply arrangement of 2016. Here Fine Gael’s predicament differs from those of its sister parties in the European People’s Party (EPP), few if any of which share power with so close an ideological neighbour. Of course, Fianna Fáil frets about its identity in exactly the same way.

Where other EPP parties are menaced by insurgents on the populist right, Fine Gael’s pressure still comes chiefly from its coalition partner and, to a lesser degree, from independents, the smaller parties of the centre-left and Sinn Féin. That may change as Aontú and Independent Ireland edge forward, but not yet.

Some inside and outside the party see an opportunity in a renewed emphasis on traditional principles of fiscal discipline, personal responsibility and a more limited role for the State. A motion along those lines was submitted to the ardfheis, but the party’s executive council refused to put it on the agenda, reportedly despite Harris wanting it debated. That suggests senior officials are wary of any rightward turn.

In reality, it is hard to see Fine Gael confronting any of this seriously while it remains in office. The party seems stuck in a holding pattern, unable to define itself yet unwilling to risk any alternatives. That may just be the price of continuous power. The risk is that it leads the party down the path to irrelevance.