The Irish Times view on Cop31: fine words are not enough

Cop31 has opened with frank acknowledgement of the lived reality of climate disruption and of its prime cause; the burning of fossil fuels. It coincides with a global fossil fuel price crisis that is “spreading inflation like a cancer”, UN climate chief Simon Stiell told the opening plenary of the talks in Turkey.

Whether that clarity ensures achievement of its core mission after 12 days of negotiations is very much in doubt. Co-hosts Turkey and Australia, strongly backed by the European Union – with Ireland leading its negotiation team as holders of the EU presidency– have taken a different tack this year. Put simply, it is to secure implementation and delivery of what has already been committed to by almost 200 countries under the 10-year-old Paris Agreement.

This brings due focus on supports for vulnerable countries and glaring shortfalls when it comes to targets – Ireland remains a laggard here and has again delayed its latest action plan. Collective progress is not at the scale and speed needed. Key support programmes remain critically underfunded. The bottom line is global warming has not been curtailed.

Driven by cheap availability of solar energy, there is a renewable energy revolution but it is concentrated in wealthy countries of the northern hemisphere. Financial red tape and unsuitable loans, rather than grants and other flexible fiscal supports, make the clean energy transition an impossibility for much of Africa and the global south. Meanwhile, carbon and methane emissions are at unprecedented levels, pushing temperatures even higher. This is being compounded by El Niño, a natural warming weather phenomenon, predicted to cause havoc across much of the planet in coming months.

Those gathered in Antalya can go beyond intent at a time of geopolitical distractions and financial constraints. Adopting a proposed target of 35 per cent electrification by 2035 would be a market signal, with a potential bonus of addressing acute affordability and energy security issues. A roadmap to delivery of additional supports promised to poorer countries is vital – likewise, a global path to transition away from fossil fuels. Without the latter, the final “decision text” would be considered weak.

While money shortages will limit ambition, one issue should not be ignored ; the precarious state of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. It has been the bedrock of global climate monitoring, diagnosis and action for decades. Yet it is starved of resources. Governments must come together at Cop31 to reaffirm its value and safeguard its work. The big win at Cop31, meanwhile, would be an unequivocal commitment to renewable energy and the electrification goal – as well as some confidence that governments really meant what they say about these vital targets.