Russia loses almost half a million lives in war on Ukraine

At least 450,000 Russians were killed by the summer of this year as a result of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, according to an analysis of records leaked from the Russian statistical agency.

The analysis suggests, however, that the death toll for this period is likely to be much higher.

The files reveal that Moscow has paid a stunningly high price for what progress its forces have made on a few small fronts, particularly in their slow advances through the heavily defended fortress towns northwest of Donetsk.

About 120,000 deaths – one-third of the total with a recorded location – occurred in the district that contains Avdiivka and Pokrovsk, two of the sites of the war’s most notoriously brutal battles. A further 48,000 deaths took place in neighbouring Bakhmut district.

Janis Kluge, a Russia expert at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, said the losses would prevent Russia from continuing to mount similar offensives. “If you look at the peak months for these attacks in 2025, we’re getting tens of thousands of dead per month,” he said.

“Their official recruitment goal is 35,000 per month – and they have not consistently met it. It’s clear that the rate of recruitment is not enough to maintain that level of loss.”

The fight for each of these towns alone was deadlier than the USSR’s invasion of Afghanistan from 1979 to 1989, which officially cost the lives of about 15,000 soldiers. The US war in Vietnam cost 58,000 American lives.

The files – which were released after being hacked by Cyberpartisans BY and Silent Crow, Belarusian and Ukrainian activist groups – offer a snapshot of official death data held by the Russian state in August, covering 11.5 million deaths.

The data set lists about 410,000 conflict-related deaths directly. While these will overwhelmingly be soldiers, some civilians are likely to have been caught by the coding.

In addition, there are 12,000 likely other military deaths based on the profile, location and status of the dead – Russian fighting-age men dying at or near the front in locations like Pokrovsk.

Rosstat recorded an additional 42,000 deaths by fighting-age men, which were identified by court processes used when families cannot recover a body.

The number of deaths is, however, understated by delays in reporting. Some of the lags are long: paperwork has continued to be filed in 2026 relating to deaths during the 2022 siege of Mariupol.

Based on the number of records already filed, the estimated total attributable to the war would settle at about 550,000 deaths – almost exclusively of men – up to the start of August.

The estimates accord with other statistical approaches to the data, such as analysis of excess deaths of fighting-age men above pre-war levels.

Taking a simpler approach to estimating the death toll, if the death rate from January were simply to have continued for the whole year, the death tally would reach 650,000 by the end of December.

Kluge said: “We have been analysing budget data to identify families being paid death compensation. And we can see that into October there has been no reduction in the casualty rate.”

Rosstat did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

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One theme from the data is the ageing of the Russian fighting force. About 10 per cent of the deaths were aged 18 to 24, but the contribution of this age group has dropped since the start of the war. In 2025, the average age of a person killed in the war was 40, up from 34 in the first year. Men aged 35 to 44 made up the largest cohort of deaths, with 158,000 dead.

The figures also reflect the uneven burden of Russia’s 2022 mobilisation – which disproportionately targeted some ethnic minorities – and a pattern of heavier recruitment of men from poorer regions.

Zabaykalsky Krai, home to one of the largest Buryat communities – a minority group – had one of the highest recorded death tolls among the regions listed separately in the data, at about 12,300, or about one death for every 80 people in the region. Bashkortostan, another minority-heavy state, suffered 15,800 deaths.

The data also shows the contribution of foreign citizens: there are 4,141 probable foreign soldiers recorded dying. Reported deaths peaked in the autumn of 2025, reaching about 390 per month. This was at about the time that Russia sharply intensified its offensive around Pokrovsk in eastern Ukraine.

Central Asia, Africa and Latin America – regions where Russia has been actively recruiting soldiers – lead the losses.

From central Asia, Uzbekistan has the highest death toll at 807, followed by Tajikistan with 598. Colombia is the biggest Latin American contributor, with 98 deaths. Nigeria, Cameroon and Egypt have the highest tolls in Africa, totalling 127 deaths between them.

The figures also reveal that 20 Bangladeshis, 10 Indians and 44 Nepali citizens have died. Some 500 Belarusian passport holders were also reported killed.

No North Korean soldiers are listed in the database, despite their contribution to Russia’s war effort. While 745 Ukrainians were listed as killed during the war, they are excluded from its estimates: an unusually large share of them appear to be civilians. Ukrainian citizens fighting for Russia appear to be listed as citizens of Russia or its puppet states.

The data also reveals healthcare crises affecting Russia.

About 457,000 Russians died in 2021 from Covid, with a pronounced surge late in the year, despite the roll-out of vaccines. Russia’s loose and often delayed pandemic restrictions contributed to a death rate 2½ to three times higher than in the UK and European Union in 2021, despite stricter rules for registering Covid-19 deaths.

Since 2021, the country has suffered 85,000 deaths from HIV and Aids. In 2025 alone, 14,000 people died of the disease. By contrast, the United Nations estimates for that year give a total for North America, western Europe and central Europe of fewer than 10,000. – Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2026