Leinster comfortable favourites for Saturday evening clash with Munster

URC: Leinster v Munster,

Aviva Stadium, Saturday, 6pm,

Live on Premier Sports

Nothing beats a vibrant domestic derby, and this provincial rivalry has underpinned the Irish team for much of the professional era. The more competitive and edgier, the better as well.

By extension, nothing has weakened the rivalry like Leinster’s dominance of Munster in recent times – witness 15 wins in the last 18 meetings. Hence, Munster’s semi-final win at the Aviva three seasons ago en route to the URC title, and storming of Croke Park last October when beating Leinster 31-14, was a boost.

Not that you’d necessarily think so judging by a couple of factors this week, notably Leinster again heavily outnumbering Munster with 17 players in the Irish squad compared to just Tadhg Beirne and Craig Casey for their opponents.

Granted, that has been a trend for a while and, allowing for the absence of several injured players in Munster’s physio room, if the truth be told, of them only Jack Crowley would have been a guaranteed inclusion. Caelan Doris, Jack Conan, Paddy McCarthy and Jack Boyle among others.

Clayton McMillan had expressed the hope that his young number eight Brian Gleeson would at least be in the conversation before admitting: “We’re desperate to get a few bodies in there and the only way we’re going to do that is by putting in performances that actually draw the attention of selectors.”

“It’s a quality team,” added McMillan of Ireland. “And it’s not easy to get into it, and it shouldn’t be easy to get into it. All we can do is control how we prepare and perform.”

This fixture is a key building block in that process. As Munster frequently demonstrated in their heyday, a rising tide lifts all boats and only on the back of strong collective performances will that bear fruit for individuals, notably when playing against their chief rivals and standard bearers.

Munster arrive on the back of some encouraging performances and a three-game unbeaten run, with an improved scrum after some smart work in the transfer market and some notably crisp handling as well as clever starter plays under the Jared Payne/Mossy Lawlor attack.

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In addition to bringing in good players, nothing generates excitement within a team and the supporter base more than the emergence of home-grown talent. Twenty-year-old Charlie O’Shea’s confidence and maturity, as well as his skills and irreverent approach, have made him a breath of fresh air. It will be intriguing to see how he goes in just his third start.

Alas, their resources have been further stretched by the loss of Tom Ahern, John Hodnett, Dan Kelly, Jeremy Loughman and Jack Aungier after picking up injuries in last week’s win over Racing 92, thereby joining Lee Barron, Edwin Edogbo and Will Harrison on the sidelines.

Further freshening the backrow by promoting Jack O’Donoghue and Gavin Coombes, as well as Alex Kendellen, looks a smart move. They and the rest of this team will be hugely motivated, but their depth still appears a little thin, and last week’s emotional rollercoaster with the 10th anniversary of Anthony Foley’s death falling in a big European week might have been somewhat draining.

Not so Leinster, albeit handing Dan Sheehan the number eight jersey as well as the captaincy is undoubtedly a punt. But he is still part of a pack of Lions, save for Ryan Baird, who is gifted enough to have been one by now.

Then there’s also the seasonal return of their world-class conductor in chief Jamison Gibson-Park and, outside him, an intriguing first start in Leinster blue for Joey Carbery since the Pro14 final win over the Scarlets in this stadium back in May 2018.

Following last week’s cameo in Clermont, fate decrees that Carbery’s first start after eight seasons away is against Munster, for whom he played 68 times in six seasons after his high-profile move down the M7 in that summer of 2018. Carbery has since earned a couple of Champions Cup medals from his time in Bordeaux. Still only 30, this classy, versatile rugby player should still have plenty to offer.

The scary aspect of Leinster’s seven tries to two, 48-23 win in Clermont last weekend was that it took them half the game to hit their straps. There is actually plenty more in them.

So it is that the bookies make Leinster whopping 17-point favourites on the handicap, or 1/14 to win with Munster 8/1 shots. So much for last year’s storming of Croke Park.

Maybe this partially explains the apparent drop in interest compared to a year ago. That game, it’s worth reminding ourselves, drew an 81,700 sell-out. By contrast, seemingly less than half that total is set to be in attendance for this renewal of hostilities given ticket sales were at 38,000 on Friday.

As with the difficulty in generating sell-out crowds for last week in Páirc Uí Chaoimh and the upcoming November Tests against Argentina and Fiji, one ventures that Irish rugby is simply over-pricing its matches, especially considering the increasing cost of living and exorbitant diesel and petrol prices, although grim weather warnings may have been a significant factor too.

Leinster-Munster is worthy of a capacity crowd. These matches are rarely dull, save for a few Christmas arm wrestles in Limerick when exposed to the brunt of an Irish midwinter. All in all, this feels like more of a litmus test for Munster. By any yardstick, Leinster look significantly stronger. Whatever happens, for the sake of the rivalry, one hopes not too much so.

Leinster: Hugo Keenan, Tommy O’Brien, Jamie Osborne, Robbie Henshaw, Jimmy O’Brien, Joey Carbery, Jamison Gibson-Park; Andrew Porter, Rónan Kelleher, Tadhg Furlong, Joe McCarthy, James Ryan, Ryan Baird, Josh van der Flier, Dan Sheehan (capt). Replacements: Gus McCarthy, Alex Usanov, Thomas Clarkson, Conor O’Tighearnaigh, Scott Penny, Fintan Gunne, Caspar Gabriel, Charlie Tector.

Munster: Ben O’Connor, Shay McCarthy, Seán O’Brien, Alex Nankivell, Shane Daly, Charlie O’Shea, Craig Casey; Josh Wycherley, Marnus van der Merwe, Kieran Brookes, Fineen Wycherley, Tadhg Beirne (capt), Jack O’Donoghue, Alex Kendellen, Gavin Coombes. Replacements: Max Clein, Mark Donnelly, Michael Ala’alatoa, Seán Edogbo, Brian Gleeson, Ben O’Donovan, JJ Hanrahan, Gordon Wood.

Referee: Andrew Brace (IRFU)

Forecast: Leinster to win.