Kerry Group rediscovers its mojo – with a little help from RFK jnr and Ozempic

Robert F Kennedy jnr, the divisive US health secretary, is discovering that taking on Big Food is easier said than done.

His Make America Healthy Again (Maha) pledge to publish a first-ever US government definition of ultra-processed foods by April came and went. A second attempt, scheduled for August, was shelved at the last minute as food-industry lobbyists turned up the heat on the Trump administration.

Then, on Thursday, a key RFK jnr adviser, Calley Means, quit in frustration at the lack of progress on flagship policies, denouncing “a corrupt DC bureaucracy that is doing everything possible to protect the status quo”.

Still, their crusade against salt, sugar and artificial food dyes has tapped into widespread consumer anxiety.

A survey released this month by the American Heart Association said that more than 70 per cent of adults in the US say they are now trying to avoid ultra-processed foods.

Edmond Scanlon, chief executive of Kerry Group, one of the world’s largest taste and nutrition ingredients groups, seems to have been ahead of the game.

[ Weight-loss drug revolution proves ‘accelerator’ for Kerry GroupOpens in new window ]

He told analysts at an investor day earlier this month that when his team began talking about the opportunity in “food renovation” – industry-speak for reformulating existing products to improve their nutritional profile without sacrificing taste or texture – “everybody was wondering, ‘What’s Kerry talking about?’” The jargon, perhaps, wasn’t doing them any favours.

“This was actually prior to RFK, prior to Maha, etc,” he said. “I suppose, back then, we thought it was going to be maybe regulatory that was going to kind of push it. It’s actually been more the consumer pull that has been playing out.”

Kerry has seen a 17 per cent jump in its sales to the US snacks sector – spanning crisps to cereal bars – in an otherwise flat, though highly competitive, overall market. This has been driven by Kerry coming up with solutions to reduce salt while maintaining taste. Even after this, 80 per cent of snack products in the US still contain sodium levels above World Health Organisation guidelines, according to Kerry.

Scanlon said that Kerry – with an army of 1,200 food scientists working on enzymes, fermentation, natural food extracts, bio-preservation and “modulation” technologies to cut salt, sugar and fat content – is the “go-to in the industry” for renovation. He sees this driving expected growth in the addressable “value-added speciality ingredients” space from €87 billion to more than €100 billion in the next five to 10 years.

The chief executive has said his “biggest hope and expectation” is that Kerry will be able to replicate the recent snacks success in the meals sector, where the market opportunity is much greater.

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The explosion of weight-loss GLP-1 medications like Ozempic and Mounjaro is also playing into Kerry’s hands, contrary to predictions, Scanlon told my colleague Eoin Burke-Kennedy on Thursday as the group reported better-than-expected third-quarter results.

“Three years into the mainstreaming of GLP-1s, I think we can now point to the fact that it has been and will be more of an accelerator to our business,” Scanlon said. “The prevalence of these drugs, whether you’re taking them or not taking them ... is driving a narrative around health and wellness that is better for our business.”

With GLP-1s fuelling the world’s protein craze, Kerry’s technology to mask its bitter and chalky taste is making the boom more palatable.

Shares in Kerry have soared about 55 per cent since late March – coming within 20 cent of €100 on Friday in Dublin – as Kerry’s brand of renovation and innovation is winning over investors even as Scanlon is factoring in a flat performance by its end markets in retail and food service over the coming years.

It follows a 50 per cent slump from an all-time high reached five years ago. Kerry missed a goal of growing sales volumes by 4-6 per cent annually in each of the past three years amid particularly weak end markets.

Still, it managed to increase its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation margin from 14.5 per cent to 17.9 per cent over the period – helped by the sale in late 2024 of a majority stake in its legacy, low-margin dairy processing business to Kerry Co-op.

Kerry’s new volume target, unveiled in July as part of a number of goals stretching to 2030, is for it to grow 3-5 per cent a year. It’s altogether more reasonable than the last objective. It also wants to lift margins to 20-21 per cent, with a helping hand from Accelerate 2.0, a programme to squeeze more efficiency out of its factories, supply chain and technology.

The group reported on Thursday that its volume growth in the third quarter rose to 4.1 per cent from 3.6 per cent for the first half of the year – and that it is on track to maintain the higher level for the final months of the year. The growth is being led by North America as Europe – a much more fragmented market – remains relatively weak. Kerry shares have advanced as much as 5.7 per cent since the release.

“Kerry’s Q3 update and subsequent [analysts’] call reinforce our confidence that the recent step-up in volume growth is sustainable, supported by renovation rather than any material improvement in underlying end markets,” said Barclays analyst Alex Sloane in a report on Friday.

Not bad for a company viewed by some long-time observers just a year ago as having lost its mojo.