Israeli elections: Arab surge leaves Netanyahu without a path to power

Based on the exit polls, Binyamin Netanyahu has no clear path to forming Israel’s next government. His bloc of right-wing and religious parties was projected to win only 50 seats in the 120-seat Knesset parliament.

This represents a significant vote of no confidence from the Israeli public in the first election since the Hamas-led invasion of southern Israel on October 7th, 2023. The outgoing Netanyahu bloc had 64 Knesset members.

“The initial exit poll results indicate complete lack of trust in Netanyahu and the October 7th government by the Zionist majority and most Israeli citizens,” said Gadi Eisenkot, Netanyahu’s main challenger.

“If these are the final results, this is a victory for the Zionist-statist majority in Israel. I will act immediately to implement the will of the people, to replace Netanyahu’s government and establish a Zionist mobilisation government as soon as possible.”

However, the anti-Netanyahu or change bloc was projected to win only 52 or 53 seats, also way short of a parliamentary majority.

The big shock of the night was the two Arab parties which, thanks to a huge surge of votes in Arab cities and villages, achieved an unprecedented 17-18 seats.

The big question now is will Gadi Eisenkot, Netanyahu’s main challenger, be able to form a minority coalition with the Arab parties offering a parliamentary safety net, while remaining in the opposition.

Naftali Bennett and Avigdor Lieberman, the leaders of the two right-wing change bloc parties, promised during the election campaign not to join a coalition which relies on the support of the Arab parties. If they are not willing to compromise then Israel could be heading for new elections.

Netanyahu did emerge as head of the largest party – against the poll projections – with his Likud two to four seats ahead of Eisenkot’s Yashar, according to the exit polls.

However, this does not mean he will be given the mandate to form the next government. Once the final results have been published, Israel’s president, Yitzhak Herzog, will consult representatives of all the parties represented in the new Knesset and hear their recommendations, before tasking a party leader with forming a coalition. This is likely to be Gadi Eisenkot.

Herzog has made it clear he will do everything to prevent another election and, if no candidate is able to cobble together a coalition, may push for a unity government, based on Likud and Yashar.

The turnout was huge, more than 80 per cent, the highest ever for an Israeli election. And the turnout in the Arab sector, traditionally much lower than for the Jewish population, also rose dramatically. The Arab parties have now established themselves as a political force that will be difficult to ignore.

Gadi Eisenkot prefers a minority government over any kind of unity government with Netanyahu or the option of another election in the spring.

Netanyahu repeatedly warned on Tuesday of a high Arab turnout, accusing Arab voters and left-wing parties of trying to “steal the election,” using terminology identical to that used by Donald Trump when Joe Biden was elected US president.

The unusually high turnout benefited the anti-Netanyahu bloc because it raised by tens of thousands the number required for smaller parties to pass the minimum 3.25 per cent threshold needed to enter the Knesset with a minimum of four seats.

Of the two parties hovering close to the threshold in this election, one was identified with the Netanyahu bloc while the other was willing to join any coalition that passed a law to enlist the ultra-Orthodox into the army.

The exit polls showed that neither party passed the threshold.

[ Gadi Eisenkot may lack charisma but he is a serious challenger to the Israeli prime minister in October’s electionsOpens in new window ]