Israeli election deadlock leaves door open to fresh Iran strikes

Israel’s inconclusive election opens the possibility for Binyamin Netanyahu to launch a new bombing campaign with the US against Iran while he rules as caretaker prime minister, said Israeli security experts.

In advance of the vote, the Israeli premier had instructed his military to prepare for a multi-day bombing campaign on the weekend of October 10th, according to people briefed on the matter.. The operation did not proceed because it was not greenlit by US president Donald Trump, whose Republican Party faces its own crucial test in next week’s midterms.

But after Netanyahu’s far-right coalition avoided outright defeat in Tuesday’s Israeli election, and appears set to win more seats than its main rival, Israeli security experts said there would be no constraints on him reviving his plans to launch fresh attacks on Iran after the midterms.

“If it remains with him as the biggest party, and his coalition has more seats than the Jewish opposition bloc, I don’t see there would be any problem of legitimacy to give any order to the chief of staff and the heads of the other [security] organisations,” said Yaakov Amidror, a former national security adviser and a Netanyahu confidant.

“I’m quite sure many generals in the IDF [Israel Defense Forces] think we should do something against Iran.”

After the inconclusive vote, Israel is bracing for a period of political deadlock. Netanyahu is expected to remain as caretaker prime minister while politicians haggle over attempts to form a government – potentially for months.

Netanyahu’s far-right coalition shed votes and lost its absolute majority, but was on course to win 53 seats in the Knesset, while his Likud was set to be the biggest single party in the 120-member parliament, according to initial results after most ballots were counted.

The Jewish opposition bloc was set to win about 48 seats, while two Arab parties were on course to garner up to 19 MPs. However, during the campaign, some senior leaders in the Zionist camp rejected any co-ordination with Arab MPs, meaning Israel faces a political stalemate with no group having a clear path to forming a governing coalition.

“He doesn’t have legal constraints. He can still do whatever he needs to do. The army commanders cannot say no ... and they are getting ready,” said Danny Citrinowicz, a former Iran analyst with Israeli military intelligence. “The IDF was against initiating war now, but when Trump calls him and says ‘this is the time’, they won’t say no.”

If the Jewish opposition bloc had secured a working majority, Citrinowicz said that “legitimacy wise, it would be harder for him”. But “now he has the biggest party [in the Knesset] it’s another vote of confidence.”

A person familiar with Israeli war planning said it was “within the authority” of a caretaker government to launch a war, despite possible reservations among IDF generals because of the proximity to an election.

It is always possible to “build a case” in terms of intelligence to attack, whether based on Iran’s nuclear programme or other factors, they added.

If a military chief truly opposed such action he could resign, but would have few other options, the person said.

Citrinowicz predicted that unless there was a “magical breakthrough” in regional mediation efforts to broker an interim deal between the US and Iran, “we will have another escalation that will serve [Netanyahu’s] interests”.

Both Trump and Netanyahu have threatened a new offensive against Iran, but the White House has said US forces would not launch such attacks before the November 3rd midterms.

[ Why Israeli election deadlock raises prospect of yet another pollOpens in new window ]

Netanyahu would likely need US backing for any fresh offensive, with Israel dependent on US forces to support its defences. Iran is expected to mount a ferocious response to any new assault.

Netanyahu and Trump launched their war against Iran on February 28th, but failed to cause the collapse of its military.

Israel and Iran have not exchanged direct fire since Washington and Tehran agreed a fragile ceasefire on April 8th, even as the US and the Islamic republic continue to engage in simmering hostilities, primarily over control of the Strait of Hormuz.

“I’m quite sure that next week or the week after that, Netanyahu will seriously consider promoting military steps against Iran,” said Michael Milshtein, a former Israeli intelligence officer.

Netanyahu would prefer a joint attack with the US, he said. But if Trump was reluctant, the Israeli prime minister could consider “independent steps, co-ordinated with the Americans”, Milshtein said.

According to several people familiar with the war plans, any new US-Israeli assault would be intense, lasting some three days and targeting nuclear facilities, regime assets and civilian infrastructure including power plants.

Amidror, a consultant at US-based think-tank Jinsa, said it was unlikely that Gadi Eisenkot – a former military chief who leads the largest Jewish opposition party – would object to an attack if Netanyahu properly briefed him in advance.

“The opposition can make noises, but if he calls Gadi and says this is the situation ... this [is] the intelligence we have, and the head of the intelligence backs him, I don’t see Gadi opposing it,” Amidror said.

Yet Eisenkot late on election night, before the scale of the opposition setback became clear, said the caretaker premier did not have the “mandate or the people’s trust” to start any military adventure.

“Netanyahu – do not dare use Israel’s security for your political needs,” he added.

There is some precedent for Netanyahu demanding a large military operation around an election.

In September 2019, both before and after an inconclusive ballot, the veteran leader attempted to launch air strikes against Hamas in Gaza. But the then-IDF chief of staff and other security chiefs refused on the grounds that it could impact the will of voters.

Now, the heads of both the Mossad and Shin Bet intelligence agencies are Netanyahu loyalists, while the public standing of the IDF general staff – once almost untouchable across Israeli Jewish society – has been eroded by the failures surrounding Hamas’s October 7th 2023 attack, amid persistent attacks by rightwing Netanyahu loyalists.

The current IDF chief of staff Eyal Zamir “has courage, but his standing is not what it once would have been”, the person familiar with Israeli plans said. “We’ve crossed a Rubicon.” – Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2026