Ireland braces for keener Trump eye on foreign affairs

The results of the US midterm elections, with a blue tsunami delivering both houses of Congress to the Democrats, was more dramatic and far-reaching than had been predicted by many commentators.

Joseph Phillips, assistant professor in political science at Trinity College Dublin, believes this changing of the guard will lead to deadlock between Congress and the White House over the remaining two years of Donald Trump’s presidency, and a greater focus by the administration on foreign affairs.

He says the Democrats’ greatest leverage would be to “metaphorically prosecute the case against the current administration”.

“I don’t even necessarily mean that legally,” he says. “Just politically, they’re going to lay out the reason why the incumbent party shouldn’t be re-elected for another term over the next two years.”

From a foreign policy perspective, he does not believe it will have a significant impact on Ireland.

Former Irish ambassador to the US Dan Mulhall agrees, but from a slightly different vantage point. He says there is a view that Ireland has done quite well over the past two years in its dealings with Trump.

“We haven’t been a target for Donald Trump as other countries have been, such as Denmark and Canada. I think we’ve actually had a relatively good innings with the Trump administration,” he says.

Like Philips, he believes Trump will be very limited in what he can do domestically following the loss of control of Congress.

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“The question is whether he will therefore pivot to be more active on the international front. That would be the normal response of a president who finds himself with Congress ganging up against him.”

Mulhall says even Trump supporters are not impressed by the war in Iran, which leads to a view it might not be escalated. “I am sanguine on that front but it won’t be plain sailing. It never is with Trump,” he says.

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He says that one change that will benefit Irish-US relations is the elevation of two strong friends of Ireland to influential positions on House of Representatives committees.

Richard Neal is to become chair of the Ways and Means Committee, while Brendan Boyle is set to chair the House Budget committee.

Mulhall says Irish diplomats in the US will be looking at the large influx of new senators and Congress members with a view to cultivating those who have connections with, or who are supportive of, Ireland. Peggy Flanagan, the newly elected senator for Minnesota, would be a good example.

Mulhall says the fact there are eight Irish consulates in the US now is significant. “We have a lot of people on the ground making connections with people, a lot of whom would have been in state politics before.”

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John Deasy, the former TD who was also Irish Government envoy to the US Congress, says the most important thing for US-Ireland relations is our connection with the administration.

“The issue for Ireland’s US relations is about who holds the White House. That’s something that will be closely watched,” he says.

Deasy says that, paradoxically, the clean sweep by the Democrats may increase the chances of getting a Republican president.

“The Democratic sweep makes it more likely another Republican will be elected president in two years’ time. Two hundred and fifty years later Americans still vote on the basis of checks and balances between the two parties.”

So, he cautions that good relations will need to be maintained with both sides.