Have we finally passed the EV tipping point?

When we speak of “crossing the Rubicon” we reference the crossing of the river of that name by Julius Caesar. Then a general in charge of an army, Caesar was forbidden from commanding that army within the geographical boundaries of modern Italy, then the heart of the Roman empire. By crossing that Rubicon – a river which runs from the Apennine mountains into the Adriatic – Caesar set off a chain of events that would irrevocably alter Roman, and world, history and peak with his installation as a dictator for life.

So, it’s a big change, then. The crossing of a point of no return, and it seems that car sales in Ireland have done just that this year as electric cars – and by that we mean specifically cars powered only and solely by batteries, with no hybrid in sight – have become the dominant species in new car sales. At the time these words are being written, 32,073 new electric car registrations have been logged so far in 2026, giving EVs a 26.3 per cent market share, which puts them ahead of hybrids, plug-in hybrids, petrol engines, and diesel engines. It’s no narrow margin, either – EVs are five percentage points ahead of the next-most popular type of cars, hybrids.

Is this, then, the point of no return? Have we “done a Caesar” and moved into a new period of history? Or is it a blip, created by a spike in fuel prices thanks to the US-Israel war against Iran?

There seems little but certainty that it’s no blip. Will Goodbody, head of external communications for AIB, tells The Irish Times: “We’ve probably crossed the point at which EVs can be considered a niche technology. That represents a significant shift in consumer behaviour and suggests EVs are moving firmly into the mainstream.

“One of the most encouraging aspects of the Irish market is that EV adoption is now increasingly evident across both urban and rural counties. The economics are becoming stronger too, with more manufacturers entering the Irish market, expanding the range of cars available and making the cost more competitive. EV ownership also becomes more attractive when combined with home charging, and even more so where households have invested in solar PV and battery storage.”

That’s true. The Irish Times ran some ballpark numbers on the running costs of a petrol-engined Volkswagen Golf and a similarly-sized MG4 EV hatchback. At current petrol prices (€1.92 per litre at the time of writing) the Golf, at an assumed average consumption figure of 6.0 litres per 100km, will cost you around €1,850 a year in fuel. The MG, assuming you mostly charge at home, on a decent night rate, and don’t use expensive public charging too much, should work out at around €450-500 to cover the same distance. Even factoring in the cost of installing a home charging point (which runs at about €1,000 once you get the SEAI grant for a first installation) the savings start to add up quickly. Over a standard three-year PCP finance deal, the Golf owner will have spent €5,500 on petrol while the MG4 owner will have spent less than half that, including the charger installation.

Ireland’s consumers have noticed, it seems. A survey by car sales website DoneDeal.ie has found that, by a narrow margin, a majority of Irish car buyers now reckon that their next car will be electric. According to DoneDeal’s figures, the level of interest in buying an electric car has risen by 19 percentage points, from 38 per cent to 57 per cent, since the beginning of the Iran war, and the subsequent throttling of oil supplies.

“The fuel protests really accelerated the interest in EVs: it made the running-cost argument for EVs visceral and personal. When you’re stretching your budget at the pump, as 46 per cent of our respondents said they were, an electric car stops being a distant ambition and starts feeling urgent. The challenge now is converting that intent into action, and that means tackling the two barriers that come up repeatedly: purchase price and public charging,” says Paddy Comyn, head of automotive content and communications at DoneDeal Cars.

Will Goodbody agrees: “Higher fuel prices have certainly strengthened the economic argument for going electric, but I don’t think they fully explain the fundamental shift we’re seeing in the market. Research suggests a broader structural shift driven by improved vehicle choice, longer battery ranges, better charging infrastructure, increased affordability and growing familiarity with EVs among Irish consumers. The more important question today is no longer whether EVs will become mainstream, but how quickly the remaining barriers around affordability, charging convenience and second-hand market development can be overcome.

“AIB supports customers who want to switch to cleaner transport through our lower-cost Green Personal Loan, which can be used to finance the purchase of a new or used electric vehicle. By offering competitive green lending, AIB helps reduce one of the key barriers to EV adoption: the upfront cost. We also support businesses through our Business Sustainability Loan, which can be used to electrify vehicles, helping organisations to lower emissions while improving energy efficiency.”

The Rubicon is crossed. Now, the electric march on Rome – so to speak – must be continued.