Republicans in the US House of Representatives are defending a narrow majority in the midterm elections.

History suggests Democrats will gain seats; they would need to net four to win control of the chamber.

But Republicans kickstarted a national redistricting battle that could make Democrats' path to a majority slightly more difficult.

Here are some races to watch.


Can Lawler defy Trump's gravity?

CHAPPAQUA, NEW YORK - OCTOBER 06: Rep. Mike Lawler (R-NY) speaks during a press conference on Governor Kathy Hochul's sanctuary policies in front of the New Castle Courthouse on October 06, 2026 in Chappaqua, New York. Incumbent Rep. Lawler
Republican Mike Lawler is struggling to hold onto his seat

US Representative Mike Lawler of New York is one of just three Republicans who represent a congressional district Kamala Harris won in 2024.

The others are an open seat in Nebraska and a Pennsylvania district US Representative Brian Fitzpatrick is favoured to win.

That makes Mr Lawler the most vulnerable House Republican up for re-election.

His opponent, Cait Conley, is a combat veteran and national security expert. Democrats have outspent Republicans by about $1m in the district, but Mr Lawler has a nearly five-to-one cash advantage over Ms Conley.

Two polls conducted in late September show both Mr Lawler and Ms Conley with narrow leads in this toss-up race.


Republican redistricting may go south in Texas

SAN ANTONIO, TEXAS - OCTOBER 7: Carlos De La Cruz, the Republican candidate for Texas' 35th Congressional District, talks to the crowd after being invited onstage by President Donald Trump during a political rally at Freeman Coliseum in San
Republican Carlos De La Cruz is contesting Texas's newly drawn 35th Congressional District

When Texas Republicans kicked off a national gerrymandering war against Democrats in the hopes of defying historical trends to hold their fragile majority in Washington, they sought to pick up five seats.

Yet as election day arrives, three of those seats are in play - all in south Texas.

Democratic US Representatives Vicente Gonzalez and Henry Cuellar are now running in districts President Donald Trump would have won by 10 percentage points in 2024.

The third district, which was redrawn from a safe Democratic seat into one Mr Trump also would have carried by 10 points, is an open race between Republican Carlos De La Cruz and Democrat Johnny Garcia.

Mr Gonzalez faces Republican Eric Flores, a former Texas army national guard infantry captain and former assistant US attorney.

He has nearly $2m more in cash than Mr Flores, and Democrats have spent twice as much to hold the seat as Republicans have spent to flip it.


Davis tries to defy a North Carolina gerrymander

Republicans redrew Democratic US Representative Don Davis' district, shifting it from a North Carolina district Mr Trump won by 3 points to one he would have carried by double digits.

Mr Davis is seeking re-election anyway.

Rep. Don Davis, D-N.C., greets early voters at the Craven County Board of Elections office in New Bern, N.C.
Don Davis greeting early voters in New Bern, North Carolina, in mid-October

He has outraised his opponent, retired army colonel Laurie Buckhout, and reported more cash on hand. Ms Buckhout has largely self-funded her campaign.

A poll released in October showed Mr Davis with a 10-point lead over Ms Buckhout.

Democrats have significantly outspent Republicans in this district, $5.8m to just $600,000.


A Golden flip in Maine?

The retirement of centrist Democratic US Representative Jared Golden in a district Mr Trump won by 9 points in 2024 opened a key flip opportunity for Republicans.

Former Maine Governor Paul LePage is running against progressive state Auditor Matt Dunlap.

Paul LePage, former governor of Maine and Republican US Congressional candidate, greets voters outside a polling location at the Cross Insurance Center in Bangor, Maine, US, on Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2026
Paul LePage greeting voters outside a polling location in Bangor, Maine, today

Mr LePage led in fundraising through June, more than doubling Mr Dunlap's $1.2m and reporting nearly $1.5m more cash.

House Democrats' campaign arm added Mr Dunlap to its "Red to Blue" programme for top offensive opportunities in August.

Polls last month showed Mr Dunlap with a slim lead over Mr LePage.


High hopes in Ohio

US Representative Max Miller of Ohio was re-elected by 15 points in 2024, though an independent candidate got 13% of the vote.

Mr Trump won the district by a smaller margin than Mr Miller, and domestic and child abuse allegations have made the congressman uniquely vulnerable.

Democrat candidate for U.S. House Brian Poindexter speaks during a campaign rally at UAW 1250 on November 01, 2026 in Cleveland, Ohio.
Brian Poindexter speaking at a campaign rally in Cleveland, Ohio, on Sunday

Mr Miller has denied the allegations, but US Senator Bernie Moreno, a fellow Ohio Republican, has called on him to resign and end his re-election campaign. Mr Moreno's daughter is Mr Miller's ex-wife.

The once-safe seat is now seen as a toss-up.

Brian Poindexter, the Democratic nominee, is an ironworker, a Brook Park city councillor and a member of Democrats' Red to Blue programme.

Democrats have poured $3.4m into flipping the seat, compared to Republicans' $730,000.


Third time's a charm in Iowa?

US Representative Mariannette Miller-Meeks of Iowa faces a familiar opponent in former state Representative Christina Bohannan, a Democrat who ran unsuccessfully against Ms Miller-Meeks in 2022 and 2024.

This time, however, could be different.

DAVENPORT, IOWA - OCTOBER 09: Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-IA) speaks during a campaign event with House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) at the Scott County Republicans' headquarters on October 09, 2026 in Davenport, Iowa. Incumbent Miller-
Democrats have their sights set on incumbent Mariannette Miller-Meeks' seat

Mr Trump is deeply unpopular, and the combination of tariffs and the war in Iran has elevated cost-of-living concerns, and his policies have driven up the price of diesel and fertiliser as voters have said affordability is their top issue this cycle.

Ms Miller-Meeks and Ms Bohannan posted nearly identical fundraising hauls of $7m until 30 June, but Ms Bohannan entered July with a cash advantage of more than $730,000.


South Florida Republican breaks with Trump on immigration

"Mr President, some of your immigration efforts have gone too far."

That warning came in September from an incumbent Republican, US Representative Maria Elvira Salazar of Florida, who represents a district Mr Trump won by nearly 15 points in 2024.

Ms Salazar is still favoured to win re-election, but her high-profile break with the president on a signature issue is a sign Republicans could lose ground with the Latino voters who helped return Mr Trump to the White House.

Eliott Rodriguez at a campaign event in Miami, Florida, in mid October

Like Ms Salazar, her opponent, Eliott Rodriguez, is a former TV news anchor.

Democrats added Mr Rodriguez to their Red to Blue programme recently but have not invested much money in his race, though they have outspent Republicans by about $280,000.

A poll conducted in September showed Ms Salazar with a narrow lead within the margin of error.


Will voters send MGP back to Washington?

US Representative Marie Gluesenkamp Perez of Washington authored a resolution condemning a fellow Democrat and helped Republicans advance their agenda by bucking her party on traditionally party-line procedural votes.

That may help her in a district Mr Trump narrowly won in 2024.

Democrat Marie Gluesenkamp Perez has tried to appeal to Trump voters

Ms Gluesenkamp Perez finished second in Washington's top-two primary, trailing state Senate Republican Leader John Braun.

Ms Gluesenkamp Perez has a $4m fundraising advantage over Mr Braun, but Republicans have outspent Democrats by more than $1m.

A poll conducted in September showed Mr Braun leading by 1 percentage point.


Democrats raising the bar in Kentucky?

Democrats only hold one of Kentucky's six US House seats.

But they see an opening in the 6th District, where incumbent Representative Andy Barr is the Republican nominee for US Senate.

The Republican nominee is Ralph Alvarado, a former Kentucky state senator and ex-head of the Tennessee health department.

Ralph Alvarado at a rally in Lexington, Kentucky, in October

His opponent is Democrat Zach Dembo, an ex-Navy JAG officer and former federal prosecutor.

There's little daylight between the candidates in fundraising, and both parties have poured roughly the same amount of money into the race.

The latest polls, all of which were sponsored by Democrats, show Mr Dembo leading.

Mr Trump won the district by 15 points in 2024.


May the best Dem win

California's top-two primary system occasionally pits two members of the same party against each other in a general election.

This year, US Representatives Ken Calvert and Young Kim, both Republicans, are running for the same seat after Democrats redrew the state's congressional map.

Doris Matsui is backed by the Democratic establishment

US Representative Doris Matsui, a Democrat, is similarly facing Sacramento City Councillor Mai Vang, a democratic socialist.

Ms Matsui is backed by the Democratic establishment, including the state party, Governor Gavin Newsom, both US senators and 37 members of California's congressional delegation.

The outcome will not affect the balance of power in the House, but it could affect the makeup of a future Democratic majority.

Several progressive or democratic socialist candidates have ousted mainstream or moderate Democrats in primaries this year, giving the left wing of the party significant momentum heading into a presidential election cycle in 2028.

Source: RTÉ News

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