Could Ireland’s Philip Lane be in the running for top ECB post?

The top job in the European Central Bank (ECB) is up for grabs following Christine Lagarde’s decision to step down early.

It sets off an intense period of haggling among euro zone states, with two other jobs also to be filled on the ECB board – those of the Republic’s Philip Lane, who is chief economist, and Isabel Schnabel, a German board member.

In this context, the comment by Central Bank of Ireland governor Gabriel Makhlouf that Lane would be a “great” candidate to be the next ECB president is interesting. Odds on the Irish man would be long, with Dutch and Spanish central bank governors Klaas Knot and Pablo Hernández de Cos seen as the front-runners.

[ Makhlouf says Philip Lane would be ‘great’ candidate to succeed LagardeOpens in new window ]

But Makhlouf’s comments suggest two things. One is that while the Dutch and Spanish bankers are the current favourites, there is a long way to go in this race. In particular, it remains to be seen whether the euro zone governments who make the choice want to appoint a traditional central banker, or want to go – as they did the last time – for someone with a political background.

Makhlouf appears to believe that the Republic should take an active approach to the appointment, rather than just supporting one of the two current front-runners. In the haggling that follows, this could allow other Irish people to be put forward for other senior jobs on offer either in the ECB or other EU institutions.

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While ECB rules limit executive board membership to one eight-year term, sources suggest that based on a previous contest, this does not apply if someone is stepping up to be president or vice-president. In any event, Lane still looks like an outsider at the moment, albeit eminently qualified and experienced.

The ECB presidency appointment will be driven by the large member states and comes at a time when wobbles in the bond market, particularly relating to France, mean the job will be a politically delicate one. With German chancellor Friedrich Merz looking over his shoulder at the AfD opposition party, which opposes ECB help for debtor countries, French president Emmanuel Macron in a weak domestic position and Spain heading for a general election, anything could happen.