Carl O’Brien US midterms writer article

2 hours ago

US midterm polls show a blue surge. Can we trust them?

Democrats are leading in all key states that will decide senate control, according to the latest polls.

However, surveys have underestimated Trump and Republican support before.

There’s precedent in the Trump era for polls to overestimate Democrats, and it’s reasonable to wonder whether the polls might be overestimating Democratic strength yet again. Statistically, Republicans more likely not to respond to polls, which introduces the ever-present risk of a polling misfire.

The political analyst Nate Cohn says the latest New York Times/Siena polls have been weighted to take account of this.

In addition, he argues Democrats lead by enough that they could win the Senate even if the polls underestimate Republicans by as much as they did in 2016 or 2020.

1 hour ago

Most voters ‘angry’ or ‘dissatisfied’ with direction of US

Voters are in the mood for change, according to the AP Voter Poll, which found that roughly three-quarters of voters say they feel “angry” or “dissatisfied” with the way things are going in the country today.

The poll finds most appear to blame the Trump administration for high costs. About six in 10 say higher-than-usual prices are “more because of Trump’s policies” rather than “more because of factors outside Trump’s control.”

Additionally, about 70 per cent of voters want the US Congress to provide more checks and balances on the presidency.

The AP poll suggests most are deeply unhappy with Trump, with roughly six in 10 saying they disapprove of how he’s handling the presidency.

About four in 10 say the economy is the most important issue facing the country, while three in 10 say the most important issue is democracy, according to the poll, well above the number who said the same about crime, health care and immigration.

1 hour ago

How will the TV networks project results?

Most TV networks and web outlets rely on two providers for vote counts: the Associated Press (AP) or election data firm Decision Desk HQ.

Some news outlets like Fox News and CBS News make their own projections based on the AP vote count, exit polls, early-vote totals and their own statistical modeling.

The first projections will start soon after polls begin to close, first with Indiana and Kentucky at 11pm Irish time.

Then, polls close in Georgia, South Carolina, Vermont and Virginia at midnight Irish time.

When making calls, the AP says it uses vote totals and estimates how many votes remain uncounted based on past voting patterns and early-vote data.

It calls a race only when the trailing candidate cannot catch up.

Decision Desk HQ collects vote counts from official state sources. The firm says it uses statistical analysis, modeling and expert review to project election winners.

1 hour ago

First polls close in Indiana and Kentucky

The first polls in the 2026 US midterms have closed now in Indiana and Kentucky.

Kentucky’s 6th district, an open seat rated by many as a toss-up, is being treated by analysts as an early test of whether a large Democratic wave is building.

At midnight, polls in Virginia, Georgia, South Carolina and most of Florida will close. Virginia’s 2nd district will be the first genuine swing seat to report.

My colleague Hugh Linehan has provided this guide on when to expect the key calls.

1 hour ago

Was Trump’s election day announcement on cutting aid to Israel a sign of desperation?

Earlier on Tuesday, US president Trump made a surprise election day announcement on US aid to Israel, a topic that has been raised in some midterm campaigns.

He said he had made a deal with Israeli prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu that Washington would stop $4 billion in funding to Israel after the end of this year, though it would still sell Israel weapons.

The announcement comes as US public support for Israel has fallen, particularly among Democrats, since Israel’s harsh response in Gaza to a deadly Hamas-led cross-border attack in October ​2023.

Trump did not say why he chose to announce the deal on Tuesday, but a number of candidates critical of Israel won Democratic primaries over the past year, and even moderate candidates have been increasingly willing to challenge longtime US support.

In a key battleground race, Democratic candidate Abdul El-Sayed is seeking to represent Michigan in the US senate. El-Sayed, who would become the first Muslim to serve as a US senator, has opposed unconditional military aid to Israel.

40 minutes ago

What does turnout typically look like in US midterm elections?

Turnout tends to be lower in US midterm elections than in the presidential elections.

Turnout in the last two midterms was 52 per cent in 2022 and 53 per cent in 2018, according to the US Census Bureau.

But with the presidency on the ballot, 65 per cent of eligible voters turned out in 2024 and 67 per cent in 2020.

Latest opinion polls indicate that Democratic voters are more likely to turn out than Republicans this year.

Election analysts have cautioned that such Democratic constituencies as young, Black and Hispanic voters have historically turned out at lower rates in midterm elections.

And surveys show persistent skepticism among these groups towards both parties, especially over the cost of living.

If turnout among those groups falls short of expectations, Democrats could underperform on election day.

33 minutes ago

Polls close in six states

Polls have closed in Georgia, Indiana, Kentucky, South Carolina, Vermont, Virginia

These are the first states to finish voting. The next batch of poll closures will take place at 12:30am Irish time in North Carolina, Ohio and West Virginia.

Meanwhile, some of the TV networks are making their first projections.

NBC projects Democrat Mark Warner will defeat Republican Bert Mizusawa to win another term in the Virginia senate race. Virginia is a solidly Democratic state, so no big surprise there.

NBC also projects Republican politician Hal Rogers will win re-election in Kentucky’s 5th congressional district, rated as a solidly Republican district by analysts.

Meanwhile, Democrat Morgan McGarvey is projected to win Kentucky’s 3rd congressional district, rated as solidly Democratic district by analysts.

These results offer an early snapshot of the contests shaping the battle for control of Congress.