Can the Democrats end over a decade of defeat in Iowa?

Iowa is at the heart of the American agricultural industry, but the Trump administration has opened up fresh challenges for farmers.

"It's really high stress," said Matt Russell, Executive Director of the Iowa Farmers Union, which represents around 1,000 members.

Tariffs and the war in Iran have created trade uncertainty and pushed up costs ahead of next week's midterm elections.

"All that disruption has been incredibly difficult for farming families," said Mr Russell.

He added: "The trade wars have reduced our prices.

"So, in Iowa, we're corn, soybeans, beef ... On top of that, you have fertiliser, you have chemicals, you have diesel fuel.

"All of those inputs have really ratcheted up, and then interest rates are also a big part of this."

The pressures facing farmers could have consequences far beyond the fields of rural Iowa.

It has been more than a decade since Iowa elected a Democratic governor or senator.

However, that could all change on Tuesday, according to Democratic strategist Derek Eadon.

Mr Eadon said: "What we're seeing in the midterm elections in Iowa is a full backlash to the policies of Donald Trump.

"So, the fact that Republicans are having to spend in states like Iowa, Texas, Mississippi, Alaska, that means that there is momentum on the Democratic side.

"The candidates that are very loyal to Donald Trump are just not doing very well."

Democratic candidate for governor Rob Sand is trying to reach across the political divide and recent polling puts him ahead of his Republican opponent Zach Lahn.

His campaign is a test of whether appealing to the middle ground can win over voters in a Republican state and offer a blueprint for Democrats ahead of the 2028 presidential election.

"I've been happy to piss off powerful people in both political parties. As your state auditor, I just want to keep doing that as your governor," he told a small campaign event in a hotel in Ottumwa last week.

For those at his event, that strategy is welcome.

"We're all hoping for change here in Iowa and I think that's what Rob represents ... and it's time," said one woman.

Another man said he liked Mr Sand's ideas and his willingness to listen to people and broaden his thinking.

"So, he's the guy," he said.

In nearby Pleasantville, I meet a group of friends in a café after they enquire about my accent and tell me about their love of Irish singer Daniel O'Donnell.

They meet every week to talk about the world and they are nervous about what comes next.

"We don't want to have Democrats run this state," Jerry Viers said.

"As far as I'm concerned, the Democratic Party has gone socialist," he added.

While farmer Bob Lyon said the high cost of fuel and fertiliser is making it harder to grow corn and soybeans.

"You don't want to have to go out there and do all the work for nothing," he said.

But when I ask who he blames, he answered: "Well, I think when the election gets over, things will stable and go back down.

"But they want to make Trump look as bad as he can right now."

That shows that even though the president's approval rating has slumped amid a series of unpopular decisions, it does not mean everyone has been driven away from the Republican Party.

For now, even those feeling the pressure of higher costs are divided over who is to blame and who can fix it.

Tom Pol, who runs the trucking company Greetings Inc in Pella, said: "I voted for Trump three times.

"I've been very clear about that. It's not something I hide.

"I'm very happy with many things and I'm extremely unhappy with other things."

He said his vote is still up in the air.

"I'm probably leaning more towards the right-hand side," he said.

He added: "Maybe my biggest challenge is it seems like no matter who you send to Washington, we keep getting the same results.

"At the end of the day, they're getting rich while the rest of us are out here killing ourselves trying to pay taxes, you know.

"And fuel is our biggest cost right now. That's a big deal."

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