Can Cop31 be a success against the odds?

This is the year when the climate crisis showed its shockingly unpredictable side, yet geopolitical turbulence and an energy crisis linked to fossil fuel supplies have combined to relegate priorities in countering a rapidly warming world.

Decarbonisation has at best been erratic; emissions don’t lie. The immense carbon pollution caused by the Ukraine war and conflict in the Middle East remains uncharted.

The winds of climate hushing have been blowing hard as many politicians, policymakers and business leaders avoid mentioning climate change or carbon emissions in public discourse. In some corners, net zero is falsely condemned as economic lunacy. All that aside, the switch to clean energy is at such a pace it can be described as a revolution.

When world leaders and negotiators from almost 200 countries gather in November for Cop31 in Turkey, there is an opportunity to put emphasis on implementation and delivery, rather than the hallmark of most previous Cops –tortuous negotiations and weak outcomes.

It will require a rare degree of unity and pragmatism among those in the willing camp, given likely stonewalling from petrostates including Russia – and the US, from afar. But a platform to do so has emerged from Cop30 and Cop28.

If Cop31 drifts towards inaction, the UN Environment Programme report on temperature “overshoot” – exceeding 1.5 degrees – should bring collective efforts back on track. We are moving to where “there are no benign scenarios … the challenge has shifted from avoiding overshoot to navigating it".

As outlined by Ayana Elizabeth Johnson, “we are heading for 2.0 degrees-plus of warming, barring radical changes”. The report stands up what scientists have warned of repeatedly, while continually offering roadmaps to avert catastrophe, she adds.

Carbon dioxide removal won’t save us. “Planting trees and some much higher-tech stuff that’s not yet proven at scale” is needed, but is not a silver bullet, Johnson adds.

We need to “fix agriculture” – cut methane, the “super potent short-lived greenhouse gas pollutant”, she says. But the programme’s unequivocal conclusions on fossil fuels are, arguably, unprecedented for a UN body: “Transitioning away from fossil fuels is thus key investment in resilience and public welfare ... avoiding carbon lock-in infrastructure is central to this.”

A way forward was set in Belém at Cop30 and gained momentum at the first global Transitioning Away from Fossil Fuels (Taff) conference in Santa Maria, Columbia. The hope is that progress by countries wishing to move faster on ridding the world of fossil fuels – which Ireland has committed to – will feed into the wider Cop process. Meanwhile, the “35 by 35” electrification target is on the table; a global target of 35 per cent electrification of final energy demand by 2035.

Phasing out fossil fuels is more plausible than ever, UN secretary general António Guterres said in his final General Assembly address in September, because there is another track for countries to follow: “Replacements for fossil fuels are now widely available, and they cut carbon pollution while increasing security and affordability … We are the first generation with the tools to end the fossil fuel age.”

Matt Webb of the green think tank E3G has noted renewables continue to scale at extraordinary speed as the world added a record 693 gigawatts (GW) of renewable capacity in 2025 – “roughly the equivalent of adding India and South Korea’s entire power systems combined to the world’s grid in just 12 months”.

However, deployment of renewables remains imbalanced, with 85 per cent going to advanced economies and China. Energy-efficiency improvements are stalled at less than half of what is needed. He suggested momentum behind electrification must be used to secure a step change in delivery towards “the core bargain struck at Cop28”: tripling renewable capacity and doubling the rate of efficiency gains by 2030, while transitioning away from fossil fuels.

To close the gap, annual renewable deployment needs to almost double up to 2030, and grid modernisation has to become a political priority, not an afterthought, Webb added. “Growth in AI and data centres must drive additional new renewable supply and help meet our commitments without risking further fossil fuel lock in … we must double down on rebalancing deployment of clean energy, particularly in Africa, with further measures and innovations to enable and de-risk investment in developing and emerging economies."

Ireland, which leads the Council of the European Union until year end, circulated new “draft conclusions” for Cop31 to member states in September.

These underline the importance of delivering an outcome “that contributes to accelerated mitigation ambition and implementation aligned with 1.5-degree pathways”. It calls for shifting away from fossil fuels in a just, orderly and equitable manner, and points to the need to triple renewable energy, and double energy-efficiency improvements, as pledged in 2023. It also highlights the need to revisit the format for the global climate talks.

‘Clean energy attracted over $2 trillion in investment last year. India passed 50 per cent non-fossil power capacity ahead of schedule. The Global South is acting despite the system, not because of it’

—  Deirdre Duffy, Friends of the Earth Ireland

Minister for Climate, Energy and Environment Darragh O’Brien, who will have a lead negotiator role, has met with EU Commissioner for Climate, Net Zero and Clean Growth Wopke Hoekstra on Cop31.

Five main areas of focus were confirmed: “Implementation matters; the Paris Agreement remains the core framework; multilateralism and collaboration are critical; progress is cumulative and achieved across multiple Cops; and clean electrification must be at the top of the global agenda – for climate, energy security and competitiveness.”

O’Brien said afterwards: “Progress should not be measured by detail in negotiating texts but by real impacts on the ground…”

According to Deirdre Duffy, chief executive of Friends of the Earth Ireland: “Cop31 has no big deal to negotiate. The era of climate promises is over, and this summit will be judged on one thing: delivery. The time for negotiation is over, given the world has already breached 1.5 degrees.”

The key test is whether Cop31 can transition away from fossil fuels, she adds, from repeated language into “financed, dated, monitored delivery plans”.

With Ireland co-hosting the Taff conference in 2027 with Tuvalu, “this is a welcome display of leadership in a world where nobody serious is debating whether the transition happens any more - only how, and how fast”.

Duffy notes significant progress despite the slow pace of negotiations: “Clean energy attracted over $2 trillion in investment last year. India passed 50 per cent non-fossil power capacity ahead of schedule. The Global South is acting despite the system, not because of it. The economics have moved. Cop31’s job is to make the politics catch up.”

For Ireland, Duffy says, that means producing a national Taff plan and matching our international stance on fossil fuels with action at home, “including ending plans for a new LNG terminal, and halting the unchecked expansion of data centres that locks more fossil fuels into Ireland’s energy system for longer”.

The Cop process was built to negotiate, not to deliver, and after 30 summits, there is nothing left to negotiate, she adds. “The promise of Antalya is that action and delivery are finally the outcomes we see.”

Ireland has flagged moves to reform the Cop process, though whether it has the bandwidth to do so may be questionable, she says.

BDO consulting and sustainability partner Marc Aboud says the sustainability lens has shifted due to backtracking and the Trump factor. But much adjustment was justified. Energy security has forced itself onto the agenda and not just due to events in Ukraine and the Middle East – “anywhere there are geopolitical tensions, there tends to be an underlying energy element to it”.

Other issues include supply chain disruption, as underlined by the Strait of Hormuz choke point, and a lack of resilience in adjusting to an overheating world.

To ensure a successful Cop31, progress has to be made on these fronts, he adds. It should include supports for adaptation in the form of climate finance for developing countries. Taff “must be tied into these three things” and the trifecta of affordable, secure and clean energy applied.

The definition of sustainability within business has become more concentrated on risk, Aboud adds. This can include managing reliance on fossil fuels amid price volatility, and sourcing difficulties and vulnerability to extreme weather events, such as a factory located on a flood plain.

On a more positive note, it is about availing of the opportunities from the transition. If these are facilitated by Cop31, including availability of green bonds to support investment, it will be a good outcome, he says.

O’Brien has highlighted the backdrop to Cop31: “The current energy crisis we are experiencing clearly demonstrates the importance of the clean energy transition for all countries. This isn’t simply about emissions – though this is of course a clear priority – it’s about ensuring energy security, energy sovereignty and energy affordability.”

Co-hosts Turkey and Australia, however, risk losing credibility if they keep betting on fossil fuels at home.  Both are pursuing fossil fuel expansion “without a national timeline to phase out their use”, Carbon Action Tracker has found.

Ireland faces a similar credibility test. To reinforce its international credibility – especially as it is at the helm of the EU – it needs a roadmap on how the country intends to transition away from fossil fuels. In spite of geopolitical challenges, the “how to” and “when” of Taff will dominate the global agenda far beyond Cop31.