Brazil’s electoral phenomenon Lula stages unprecedented comeback

Already the greatest electoral phenomenon in his country’s history, Brazil’s president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva saved his best for last.

Just two days shy of his 81st birthday, seeking a fourth mandate in his seventh presidential campaign, 37 years after his first run, the leftist veteran staged an unprecedented comeback win to defeat far right-senator Flávio Bolsonaro in Sunday’s election.

In doing so he breaks a string of victories in recent years for the hard right across Latin America and deals a blow to US president Donald Trump’s ambitions to exert greater influence over the region.

When Lula unexpectedly lost to Flávio by 2.22 million votes in the first round on October 4th, most analysts wrote off his chances. Never before in Brazil’s electoral history had anyone who came second in the first round gone on to win the runoff.

[ Lula wins fourth term as Brazil’s president over Flávio BolsonaroOpens in new window ]

But at ten past nine local time on Sunday night a chorus of fireworks and car horns in cities across Brazil greeted the confirmation by the country’s electoral court that Lula was the victor in what he insists is his last campaign.

In an astonishing performance, he added more than ten million votes to his first round total to beat Flávio by 4.4 million votes, or 51.8 to 48.2 per cent.

The turnaround followed a massive mobilisation by the left on the country’s streets and online after its first-round defeat. This transformed a race marked until then by indifference.

Energised, Lula’s campaign focused relentlessly on Flávio’s character, his links to organised crime and the array of corruption allegations against him. This scrutiny allied to warnings about how he was signalling to the financial sector that he would make deep budget cuts helped Lula orchestrate his come-from-behind win.

In a victory speech to ecstatic supporters in São Paulo Lula promised to change his method of governing, a nod to the high levels of dissatisfaction with his administration that cost him the first round.

“This election has taught me many things,” he said.

Flávio’s defeat ends his hopes of freeing from detention his father, former president Jair Bolsonaro. He is serving a 27-year sentence for attempting a coup after he lost his re-election bid to Lula in 2022.

The plot included plans to assassinate Lula and his vice-president Geraldo Alckmin. Now instead Flávio faces the prospect of joining his father in jail. When he leaves the senate at the end of January he will be without parliamentary privilege for the first time since 2003.

With various investigations into his activities ongoing his legal jeopardy will likely increase significantly.

In his first public comments after the result he refused to recognise his defeat, citing a supreme court decision to extend voting by two hours after allegations that bolsonarista-controlled municipalities had sought to suppress voting by restricting public transport.

“What happened is inexplicable ... I will call for an annulment,” he told supporters in Brasília. But the result was confirmed by the head of the electoral court – a supreme court justice appointed by Flávio’s father – who said the extension made no difference to the outcome.

This latest display of authoritarian petulance by the Bolsonaro clan will be just one of many challenges facing Lula as he prepares for a history-making fourth term in office. The opposition dominates the new congress, the supreme court has lost all authority after a string of scandals and investors were already worried about the budget deficit even before Lula made lavish spending promises as part of his re-election bid.

But Sunday night was about securing the future of Brazilian democracy from the authoritarian far right. And with a second victory over the Bolsonaros in four years Lula might just have done it.