Both sides lost in the Israeli election. What happens now?

Where do we stand after Tuesday’s election?

The Yiddish word ‘plonter’ has been incorporated into the Hebrew language and it’s been heard incessantly since Tuesday. It translates as a tangle or complicated predicament. Israel is in a ‘plonter’ and there is no clear way out. This is an election in which both sides lost.

If Netanyahu lost, why may he continue as prime minister?

Netanyahu’s coalition of right-wing and religious parties had an overall majority of 64 in the 120-seat Knesset parliament before the election. They now have only 53 seats. But the opposition, or change bloc, won only 48 seats, with the remaining 19 seats going to the two Arab parties. The right-wing parties in the change bloc say they will not sit in a coalition with the Arab parties. Meanwhile, Netanyahu continues as caretaker prime minister and will probably fancy his chances if a new election takes place in the spring.

Why is the result so disappointing for the change bloc?

Ahead of the election all the stars seemed to be aligned for the bloc led by former Israel Defense Forces chief of staff Gadi Eisenkot to replace Netanyahu. The polls were positive, the street was energised, the bloc was well organised and well financed. Voter turnout was predicted to be the highest in years and close to 100,000 Israelis living abroad flew home to vote, almost all of them seemingly for opposition parties. Yet, the opposition still ended up with five fewer seats than the Netanyahu bloc.

What impact did the high Arab voter turnout have?

This was the big surprise on election night, with the Arab turnout soaring to almost 80 per cent, almost doubling the number of Knesset seats for Arab parties. But this pushed the opposition bloc further away from a 61-seat majority, working in Netanyahu’s favour.

What are the options now for the change bloc?

The disappointing election results leave the four main opposition parties with no good options. Eisenkot talked during the campaign of forming a minority government without the Arab parties, based on the assumption that they would abstain in motions of no-confidence. But because the Netanyahu bloc has more seats and his Likud is the largest party, this may no longer be a realistic option. The second option is a unity government with Likud, also extremely problematic, given deep animosity towards Netanyahu. The third option is new elections.

What about the Iran factor?

There is a distinct possibility that the US and Israel will renew attacks on Iran after next week’s US midterm elections, or that Iran may opt for a pre-emptive strike. Netanyahu is likely to use such a scenario to push for an emergency unity coalition on his terms.