Just two days before Tuesday’s election, prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu, Israel’s longest-serving leader who turned 77 a few days ago, posted an AI-generated image depicting a nuclear explosion in Tel Aviv, warning the public that voting for anyone other than him could expose the country to the danger of a “second Holocaust”.
In a separate interview on the same day, he warned that US aid to Israel wouldn’t continue for long, and due to an expected surge in international sanctions his country would be forced to trade using cryptocurrency, following the example of the world’s worst dictatorships.
His doomsday scenarios painted a picture of a panic-stricken leader finding it difficult to come to terms with the polls that show his coalition of right-wing and religious parties will fall significantly short of the 61 seats required for a parliamentary majority.
In fact, the polls have shown very little change at all during the election campaign. There has been some small movement between parties within the pro or anti-Netanyahu camps, but few voters shifting from one camp to another. Israel was, and remains, a deeply divided country.
The anti-Netanyahu, or change, bloc could clinch a Knesset majority but this would involve an alliance with one or both of the Arab parties, considered beyond the pale by many in the bloc.
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This has been the most consistent message of Netanyahu’s election campaign: repeating the mantra that the left has no path to power without the Arabs. Yamin O Falastin – The Right Wing or Palestine – is the slogan on the Likud billboards.
An estimated 80,000 Israelis living abroad have flown home over the last few days to vote and the overwhelming majority of them will vote for parties in the anti-Netanyahu camp. This represents close to two Knesset seats.
Polls show that the most important issue for Jewish voters is security, and responsibility for the October 7th, 2023, Hamas-led attack on southern Israel.
Netanyahu, in contrast to senior generals and intelligence officials, has refused to accept personal responsibility for the worst day in Israel’s history, when 1,200 people were killed and 250 taken hostage into Gaza.
None of the parties are talking about peace or a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, and there has been almost no criticism of Israeli actions in Gaza.
Gadi Eisenkot, Netanyahu’s biggest rival, has vowed to end Hamas rule in Gaza within 18 months if he becomes prime minister, either by executing US president Donald Trump’s framework to demilitarise and rebuild Gaza or by Israeli military action.
With Israel heading towards political deadlock, president Yitzhak Herzog has vowed to do everything in his power to prevent another election in the spring. It could be the biggest challenge of his career.
Source: The Irish Times · Mark Weiss
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