Arab parties could be kingmakers in Israel’s election. Netanyahu has reason to worry

The main opposition parties in Israel, making up the anti-Netanyahu bloc, are unlikely to obtain an overall majority in next Tuesday’s election, so they have formulated a plan B: to take control of the Knesset parliament and push through key legislation after the election, before a new government is formed.

The underlying logic is as follows: right-wing opposition figures are reluctant to sit in a potential coalition with Arab parties, but they may be open to a deal with the Arab parties to form a majority in the Knesset to advance legislation that will undermine the position of prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu, even as the coalition talks take place to form a new government.

Representatives of the four main Zionist opposition parties have already discussed the plan B option, although in public declarations the message is that they are still aiming to clinch an overall majority in next week’s vote. In recent days, according to Israeli media reports, discussions have also taken place with the two Arab parties expected to gain seats in the incoming Knesset.

The Arab parties, which are projected to win around 14 seats in the 120-seat Knesset, realise that entering into a coalition is unlikely but both parties appear open to a deal that would undermine Netanyahu’s grip on power.

In return, the Arab parties are seeking a freeze, or at least a significant cutback, in the widespread demolition of buildings in Israeli Arab communities, deemed illegal by the government. Right-wing opposition lawmakers back the demolitions but may be willing to stop the actions as part of a deal with the Arab parties.

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The first critical step in the opposition plan is to force a vote after the new Knesset convenes on November 10th to replace the Knesset Speaker and the head of the Knesset Arrangements Committee, in order to take control of the parliamentary agenda.

The new Knesset can pass and repeal laws independently of the government. The priority will be bills to dismantle the judicial reforms enacted by the Netanyahu government and the establishment of a probe into the October 7th, 2023, Hamas-led attack on southern Israel, which is likely to ultimately point the finger of blame at Netanyahu himself.

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Another possibility is that the Knesset could pass legislation to prevent someone under criminal indictment from being prime minister, which would rule out Netanyahu, who is on trial accused of bribery, fraud and breach of trust – charges he denies. Setting a term limit for a prime minister is also under consideration.

The current coalition parties will attempt to block the opposition plans, but the plan B architects believe the high court will allow them to proceed.