Ontario businesses gain ‘fragile’ optimism on trade after U.S. midterms

The Republican Party’s disastrous performance in the U.S. midterm elections has injected some fragile hope into the Ontario business community, according to some business advocacy organizations eager to see Canada step into a strengthened position in its trade relationship with the U.S.

“(Optimism) is higher, certainly, than it was a year ago, despite all the challenges that we’ve been in,” said Daniel Tisch, the president and CEO of the Ontario Chamber of Commerce, a non-profit group representing around 60,000 businesses.

“After the midterms and the indisputable weakening of (U.S. President) Donald Trump and his agenda, our strategic position has improved…modestly but meaningfully, because we are less vulnerable,” he said, describing the optimism as “very fragile right now.”

As the results of the U.S. midterm elections began to trickle in Tuesday night, it was clear the Democratic Party achieved a decisive victory, taking control of both the House of Representatives and the Senate in a rebuke of the Trump administration.

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“It’s pretty clear that Trump’s approach to Canada has widespread opposition in the U.S.,” said Tisch.

An increased alignment has also emerged between the federal government, Ontario and the business community, he said, while much of the last decade saw those three pillars in a “gridlock.”

“We’re working together,” he said. “We’ve started to invest in our economy, we’ve diversified our trade relationships, you see really positive measures that are incentivizing businesses to invest in themselves.”

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But economic uncertainty due to Trump’s tariff regime on Canada, first levelled less than two weeks after he was inaugurated, has led to upheaval for Ontario’s businesses that has required increased resilience, according to surveys of owners published since 2025 by the Ontario Chamber of Commerce.

The organization’s most recent data published Oct. 1 shows some increased optimism, even before the midterm results, amid continued worries about the trade war.

The survey of 851 businesses across Ontario showed that while 44 per cent lacked confidence in the economy, business confidence rose over the course of 2026, from 23 to 34 per cent.

Yet, the majority did expect economic uncertainty due to the trade war with the U.S. to continue to hurt their businesses. Fifty-seven per cent reported they expect tariffs, trade policies and economic uncertainty to negatively affect their investment or expansion plans.

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As a result, business owners reported they were increasing prices, reducing trade with the U.S., expanding domestic sales and diversifying suppliers.

Ontario Premier Doug Ford expressed similar optimism about the midterm results earlier this week, telling media he was “doing cartwheels” when he saw the Democrats’ blue wave. But the premier also voiced caution, citing that it will be up to Prime Minister Mark Carney to continue to try to make a trade deal with the president.

The Ford government also watched closely as Ottawa released its fall budget on Thursday. It featured an additional $151 billion over five years in “supports” for Canadian households, businesses and other levels of government.

Ontario Finance Minister Peter Bethlenfalvy said the government welcomed the budget as it provided “further tax relief for businesses,” stating that it aligned with “Ontario’s own focus on attracting investment and cutting taxes for workers and businesses.” He cited the province’s $8 billion Ontario Competitiveness Tax Cut and $1.1 billion small business tax cut as examples.

However, both the federal government and Ontario have been criticized for not providing enough support for small businesses amid the trade war.

The Canadian Federation of Independent Business said Thursday’s federal budget is a “mega disappointment,” as small businesses with less than $1 million in annual sales do not qualify for any tariff support programs.

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In the legislature Thursday, Ontario NDP MPP Kristyn Wong-Tam criticized the Ford government for allowing small businesses in Toronto to languish without protection from corporate landlords while they deal with what the opposition described as unfair lease terms, eviction threats and communities losing stalwart small businesses.

In response to Wong-Tam’s comments, Progressive Conservative MPP Doug Downey said the Ford government has cut “so many taxes” for businesses and removed bike lanes, which he said were hurting small businesses.

The Ontario Chamber of Commerce study, conducted in partnership with Leger, is based on a survey of 851 businesses across Ontario between July 27 and Aug. 17, 2026.  

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