New Brunswick watches for trade relief after U.S. Democrats’ midterm victory

Posted November 4, 2026 5:44 pm

3 min read

2:23 What a new Democratic-led Congress could mean for New Brunswick

Political watchers and economic experts in New Brunswick are keeping a close eye on the Democrats’ decisive victory in the U.S. midterm elections, saying while it could bring some relief down the road, it won’t happen immediately.

The Democrats won both the House and the Senate Tuesday night in a blow to the Republican Party and U.S. President Donald Trump.

“We have to wait and see but better trade conditions are always good for New Brunswick because we’re heavily dependent on the U.S. market,” said University of New Brunswick economist Herb Emery.

“But whether we can get them improved fast enough to offset our own eroding business conditions through power costs and taxes and everything else remains to be seen.”

1:58 Why Democratic midterm win could work in Canada’s favour

In neighbouring Maine, the trade war with Canada became an election issue.

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Maine imports billions of dollars worth of products from Canada, such as electricity, seafood and plastics.

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To help long-standing Republican Sen. Susan Collins in the days before the midterms, the president signed an order removing 50 per cent tariffs on some Canadian agricultural and forestry products affecting the state’s industries.

However, Collins still lost the race to Democrat Troy Jackson.

“This ad hoc stuff around the border states, I think was good for the companies on either side of the border, but it doesn’t solve the bigger problem, which is creating an environment where there’s lots of opportunities for all kinds of businesses to access those markets,” said Emery.

New Brunswick Premier Susan Holt said Wednesday morning that her Liberal government is “looking forward to building relationships” with newly elected U.S. officials.

Holt, in a brief statement to The Canadian Press, said she expects “their leadership will result in improved trade conditions for (New Brunswick) entrepreneurs and workers.”

Nationally, Canada-U.S. Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc said Wednesday that Canada’s focus on diversifying trade “hasn’t changed” despite the midterm results.

Experts say existing U.S. laws still give Trump considerable power to maintain tariffs or even impose new ones.

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“I would be prepared for more volatility,” said Tom Bateman, a political science professor at St. Thomas University in Fredericton.

“Don’t take the president at his word, actually. Now that he is sort of like a political lame duck and abandoned by voters in their judgments on his congressional colleagues, he may be more volatile and unpredictable and reckless.”

2:22 U.S. tariff threats raising concerns for New Brunswick businesses that rely on cross-border trade

Alternatively, Emery said Democrats could push for legal challenges.

“If they can activate the courts to consider it, then there’s a potential that the tariffs could be struck down and then you have the problem with what do you do with all the money that’s been collected,” said Emery.

Meanwhile, the Canadian Federation of Independent Business (CFIB) said 43 per cent of surveyed New Brunswick businesses reported a high impact from U.S. tariffs.

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Nationwide, 40 per cent of independent businesses said they had to raise prices as a result.

“We’ve got members that are telling us we’re just going to have to reduce staff and potentially wind down the business if we can’t find other opportunities,” said Louis-Philippe Gauthier, CFIB Atlantic’s vice-president.

— with files from Sean Previl, Rachel Morgan, The Canadian Press and The Associated Press 

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