The newcomer shaping up as NZ's next potential 'kingmaker'

For a political neophyte, Qiulae Wong is absurdly comfortable with the practice of politics.

The 38-year-old leader of New Zealand's Opportunity Party (TOP) is canvassing voters in central Wellington, just a few days before Kiwis go to the polls on Saturday.

She fields complaints, compliments and queries with total equanimity. She listens intently, but concedes little. She's armed with a gracious smile and quiet confidence. She is constantly on message, never flustered and appears totally sincere.

It's been a meteoric rise for the former KPMG consultant, who won the TOP leadership just one year ago after a career in ethical fashion and business sustainability.

She has been dismissed by some as a polished lightweight — "the darling of the lanyard class!" one New Zealand political observer harrumphs to the ABC.

But she's been praised by others as a breakthrough political talent who has managed to drum up raw enthusiasm in an otherwise grim and grey electoral environment.

One thing is certain though: everyone is talking about her.

The Financial Times called her New Zealand's potential new "kingmaker," while The Economist has labelled her the "millennial centrist shaking up New Zealand's election".

That's because if the polls are right, the Fiji-born, Auckland-raised political entrepreneur is on the brink of securing an unprecedented parliamentary berth for the Opportunity Party, which could mean she's in a key position to decide who will lead New Zealand's next parliament.

She readily admits that, at this point, she is "largely running on adrenaline" but she's feeling a groundswell of momentum building behind her.

"It's unlike anything I have done before," she told the ABC.

Wong is trying to blaze a new trail through New Zealand politics, much like the so-called Teal Independents in Australia who stole heartland metropolitan seats from the Coalition in 2022.

But those independents are all insurgents who launched campaigns from their local communities as a stepping stone to political power.

Wong's vision is wider — in fact it's national.

And for Opportunity, there is only one number that really counts: five.

Under New Zealand's Mixed Member Proportional (MMP) electoral system, there are two ways of entering parliament: by winning an electorate or by gobbling up some of the "list" seats awarded to parties that win 5 per cent or more of the party vote.

No party headed by a political newcomer from outside parliament has ever breached that magical barrier since 1996, when New Zealand embraced MMP in 1996.

So it's no exaggeration to say that Wong is trying to make political history.

'We have every reason to be hopeful'

Will they get there? 

The latest Roy Morgan poll suggests Opportunity could reach as high as 8 per cent on Saturday, although a recent 1News-Verian survey has estimated its vote may be closer to 6 per cent — uncomfortably close to the magic floor.

Wong exudes confidence when she's asked if she can get over the line.

"We've been polling consistently above 5 per cent since July," she says.

"We have every reason to be hopeful. I've had so many conversations with people across the political spectrum who are backing Opportunity because they want something different. They want some fresh people and some fresh thinking."

Opportunity has pitched itself as a decidedly pragmatic and non-ideological political force, and Wong says her supporters are interested primarily in what works, rather than what stokes emotion on increasingly toxic social media feeds.

She is vowing to "not shy away" from tackling big issues, saying the party wants to tackle the hardest questions.

"How do we make an economy work that addresses the big challenges of climate change, AI and global volatility?" she asks.

It's a forbidding ask, but some of Opportunity's ideas are novel.

Wong has championed an overhaul of New Zealand's tax system, with a new annual 1.75 per cent charge on the value of land in urban and commercial areas, along with 0.5 per cent on rural land.

Opportunity says this will help young people into housing and bolster supply, instead of encouraging investors and speculators to simply sit on unused land.

That money would then be ploughed into a new universal "Citizen's Income" of $NZ370 ($297) per week, nearly $NZ20,000 ($16,072) a year, paid to almost all adults — and replacing most existing welfare schemes.

Not all economists are convinced, and the Prime Minister, Christopher Luxon, has savaged the proposal, saying it would be ruinous for the country.

But Opportunity is unfazed, insisting that bold new ideas are needed in the face of intersecting economic and climate crises.

Promise to lower temperature on political debate

The party also wants New Zealand to cut emissions more sharply and step up its transition to a low carbon economy.

Most polls suggest most Kiwis are more preoccupied with the cost of living than climate change right now, but Wong insists the climate imperative cannot be dismissed.

"When the cost of living and everyday pressures are front of mind to people it's easier not to pay attention to [climate change]," she says.

"But when I talk to young people climate change and the environment are almost always number one on their list — they understand deeply the challenges ahead of them and they want a political party to take that seriously."

Wong is also vowing to lower the temperature of debate in an increasingly fractured and polarised political landscape.

"We have a lot of political leaders who are spending more time on sowing division or short-term political point scoring," she says. 

"I think that's what is growing this discontent in people."

"We want to bring people together because there's no way we can tackle these big things if we are constantly fighting with one another."

Doing that may be easier said than done if Wong does find herself in the powerful (but parlous) position of kingmaker after the election.

The latest polls are predicting that it's possible neither the National-led centre-right coalition nor the Labour-led centre-left coalition will have enough support in their own right to get a majority.

So if Opportunity does get over the 5 per cent wall and win seven or eight seats, it will find itself, once again, in the full glare of the political and media spotlight.

Opportunity ready to negotiate

Christopher Luxon insists he absolutely won't do a deal with Opportunity to secure power once again.

Few political observers take that promise seriously. They believe that if the prime minister's only realistic path back to the top office lies through Opportunity, then he'll take that opportunity.

For her part, Wong is determined not to get ahead of herself.

She's set some "bottom lines" for negotiations and says she'll open discussions with the major party which has won the most support at the election.

Either way, she doesn't want discussions to drag on into the new year — a prospect some political analysts fear if the election is very tight.

"New Zealanders want an answer and some certainty as soon as we possibly can," she says.

"It's not just up to us. But we'll certainly do our best to make that happen."

But all of that has to wait for now. There's the small matter of Wong meeting the moment (not to mention sky-high expectations among media and political pundits) and hitting that magical 5 per cent threshold.

Wong insists she's taking nothing for granted, although her language sometimes suggests otherwise.

"That's been an extraordinary experience for me, and I'm looking forward to taking action … when we get into parliament," she tells the ABC.

That's when. Not if.

Qiulae Wong might be new to politics, but she's in an almighty hurry to get things done.