One Nation comes for NSW and Labor gets the jitters

Editorial

October 28, 2026 — 5:00am

The clear and present emergence of One Nation makes next March’s NSW election capriciously unpredictable. It is also going to be unlike anything we’ve seen before.

Since Pauline Hanson’s popularity surged in opinion polls after the South Australian state election, One Nation had been the National Party’s big problem.

Now it’s coming for Labor’s NSW heartland.

Labor internal polling shows One Nation is a genuine threat to the Minns government as officials warn of the potential for a One Nation/Liberal victory. Labor MPs have been told the party could lose more than a dozen seats and be bundled out after just one term of government.

Seats in the Hunter, South Coast, Central Coast and south-west are considered particularly vulnerable. MPs in regional seats expect One Nation to be their most significant challenger on polling day rather than Liberal or Nationals candidates.

Premier Chris Minns on Tuesday shrugged off the threat of Opposition Leader Kellie Sloane, instead declaring his fight for the top job was with One Nation, and suggested NSW One Nation leader Mike Newman would either be opposition leader or premier. “One Nation are surging,” he told 2GB. “And they’re getting a big, big chunk of the vote.”

It’s little wonder, then, that Minns pledged $6.8 billion toward removing bottlenecks on the passenger train line to the South Coast and electrifying it all the way to Bomaderry over the next decade as part of a re-election undertaking.

Meanwhile, the Liberals continue to tip-toe around the possibility of sharing power.

Sloane has formally ruled out entering into a coalition or formal deal with One Nation but adopted a nuanced and sometimes confused strategy of signalling shifts on contentious issues such as gun control to blunt One Nation’s appeal to conservative and regional voters.

Shadow police minister Anthony Roberts held the muddleheaded line on Tuesday, telling the ABC he was not worried about One Nation despite the conga line of Liberals including former state MP Nathaniel Smith, former Senator Hollie Hughes, former Warringah candidate Katherine Deves and former NSW upper house MP Lou Amato vying to be selected to stand for One Nation.

The November 28 Victorian state election undoubtedly will be a bellwether for One Nation’s electoral clout and chances of living up to the hype of entering a coalition.

Polls suggest the Victorian Coalition is headed to victory without One Nation. The Liberal leader Jess Wilson is following the playbook and ignoring One Nation: she won’t countenance One Nation leader Warren Pickering sharing the platform in a leaders debate with Labor Premier Ben Carroll.

In NSW, One Nation is gaining strength and momentum. The fact that so many members of the political class in NSW are jumping ship or flirting with One Nation suggest the party will be a serious contender.

This has huge ramifications for our state.

The Herald has long considered One Nation a damaging force. For nearly 30 years, it has offered simple and popular solutions to complex problems. That is no way to run NSW.

The Herald's View – Since the Herald was first published in 1831, the editorial team has believed it important to express a considered view on the issues of the day for readers, always putting the public interest first.

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