Netanyahu has wrestled his opponents to a draw. For now, that’s a victory

October 28, 2026 — 10:36am

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Tel Aviv: Israelis have rushed to the polls in huge numbers to reject Benjamin Netanyahu and the far-right extremists who have kept him in power for the past four years. Yet, despite overseeing the greatest security failure in Israeli history, the nation’s longest serving prime minister could remain in the job for months, even years.

F. Scott Fitzgerald, one of America’s greatest authors, argued: “The test of first-rate intelligence is the ability to hold two opposed ideas in the mind at the same time, and still retain the ability to function.” Never has that been more true than assessing the results of an election many Israelis believed to be the most important in their history.

First, the rejection. According to exit polls conducted by Israeli television networks, Netanyahu’s coalition has crashed from 64 seats at the last election in 2022 to about 50 now. That is nowhere near the 61 seats required to form a majority in the Knesset, the Israeli parliament.

The other 70 odd seats have been won by parties who, while spanning an eclectic array of ideologies, all want Netanyahu turfed out of office. About 18 of those belong to the so-called Arab parties, who held just 10 seats in the previous Knesset. They are undoubtedly the big winners of this election.

It was clear in the lead-up to election day that voter turnout among Israel’s Arab citizens was going to soar compared to past elections, but no-one expected anything this big.

These election results have brought Israelis face to face with the reality that one in five of its citizens are Arab, many of whom consider themselves Palestinian citizens of Israel. They may be demonised and ignored by many of their fellow citizens, but they exist and they can vote.

Ironically, Itamar Ben-Gvir, the ultranationalist who has overseen Israel’s police force and prison system for the past four years, turned out to be a voter turnout machine. Just not for his Jewish Power party but for Arab Israeli voters, who were furious at exploding crime rates and unsolved murders he has presided over.

But that’s not the full story. Netanyahu’s conservative Likud party remains the biggest in Israel with about 32 seats. To be sure, that is well down on the 32 seats Likud won at the last election, and Netanyahu only won so many by cannibalising his own coalition. But he has demolished the expectation that former military chief Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar would emerge as the nation’s most popular party.

Winning the most seats does not guarantee a party will be given the first shot at forming a government; that is President Isaac Herzog’s call. It is an important psychological boost, though, and Netanyahu will squeeze it dry to remain in power.

Eisenkot would have dearly loved to have won the most seats for his party, as well as the most seats for his opposition bloc, to buttress his claim to the prime ministership.

The results may, as he says, be a “no confidence” vote in Netanyahu, but they are certainly not a thumping endorsement of him. Now it is a battle of narratives between him and Netanyahu, a man with vastly more experience and ruthlessness.

Eisenkot, who prides himself on his integrity, is a political neophyte who only entered the Knesset four years ago. Netanyahu has been a major player in Israeli politics since the early 1990s and will do what it takes to stay in office to avoid the possibility of jail for fraud and bribery charges. That includes restarting the war against Iran alongside Donald Trump, a move that looks likely in coming weeks.

Netanyahu will remain as caretaker prime minister until a government is formed, and he can use the power of incumbency to shape the contest to his advantage. A deadlocked draw counts as a victory for him given the October 7 attacks of 2023 initially looked like the end of his career.

The complication for Netanyahu’s opponents is that Eisenkot definitively stated before election day that no Arab or ultra-Orthodox party met his criteria for joining his government.

Key opposition figures have said they will not serve in a government dependent on Arab support. Will they break their promises or gamble on another round of elections? Could defections from one bloc to another scramble the numbers?

Herzog could also push for the formation of a grand coalition government of election rivals. Then there is a possibility of a minority government, with the Arab parties providing a safety net to Eisenkot but not serving as official members of his coalition. This would be unwieldy and prone to collapse, giving Netanyahu the chance to pounce in another round of elections.

The fact we are entangled in so many hypotheticals shows the election has not been the knockout blow Netanyahu’s Zionist opponents had dreamed of and looked possible a few months ago.

Netanyahu is wounded, but not yet defeated. Not even close.

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