Backing a horse in Victoria's election is no simple task

You could be forgiven for thinking the Victorian Labor government was already in caretaker mode this week, with Premier Ben Carroll licking Macca's soft-serve ice creams and holding mock debates with no opponents.

Technically, Labor is still running executive government in Victoria. Caretaker period begins a few hours after punters ride their luck in the Melbourne Cup on Tuesday afternoon.

This week the Carroll campaign hit the road, in full TV pantomime with a big red bus ferrying the press pack to key seats.

Those efforts were overshadowed by new polling showing Labor is on track for a thumping election loss, with Opposition Leader Jess Wilson and the Coalition on track to return to government for the first time since 2014.

The opposition is running a small-target strategy trying to avoid any slip and let voters focus on the government's woes.

It has been largely smooth sailing until Friday, when it backtracked on its promise to "pause and review' the Suburban Rail Loop, saying construction work would not indeed pause if it won.

In May, Wilson had confirmed that under this plan construction work would stop during the review (workers would still be paid).

But amid revelations it would cost $1 billion to pause works, the Coalition clarified the suspension would mean no new contracts would be signed.

"We've been clear that our pause and review will be swift and completed in our first 100 days,'' the opposition said in a statement.

"Pausing the project means not committing to further contracts whilst the review about the project's future is undertaken."

But Wilson was not available to explain the change of track, as a flagged press conference never materialised.

It was the first real policy snafu of the campaign and ended a week of stunts and promises. It has also raised questions about the Coalition's ability to handle pressure when things go off script, which it is likely to do during the campaign.

Some Labor MPs concede 'we can't win'

On Thursday, the premier held a mock debate with two empty lecterns for One Nation and the Liberal Party, goading Jess Wilson for not accepting media invitations for a public debate.

Wilson says she'll only go head-to-head with the Premier in a televised debate and won't enter any contest with One Nation, arguing the party not going to form government.

Carroll says he'll only debate if One Nation is included.

Beyond the debate sideshow, many Labor MPs have entered the fifth stage of grief: acceptance.

"We're pushing shit uphill,'' one MP remarked.

Another said, "we can't win, but we can save the furniture."

Ben Carroll has been in the job for three months, but his coup removing Jacinta Allan generated no poll bounce. In fact, Labor has slid further.

He and his new team have spent most of their time reminding voters of Labor's 11 years in office by trying to distance themselves from it.

"A new premier going in a new direction,'' Carroll has frequently reminded voters.

That new direction this week?

An appeal directly to health workers — a central part of Labor's depleted base — with plans to tackle violent and abusive patients, including bans from hospitals and tearing up ambulance memberships.

It was warmly welcomed by health worker unions, although there was some expert concern it could lead to problems with caring for the vulnerable.

The premier was also trying to drive up votes with new roads, in a sign that a basic service delivery of any state government has this year become a red-hot election frontline issue.

Wilson was also behind the wheel, matching Labor road projects, including pledging to upgrade the Western Highway — funding and planning is already underway by the state and federal governments.

When it was pointed out the project was already in planning, shadow minister Evan Mulholland retorted: "The difference is we'll get on with it."

Backing a winner this election is no easy task

Jess Wilson is the obvious face of the opposition and has made huge inroads with a well-curated social media offering focused on law and order, budget repair and Labor's track record over the past 12 years.

But as poll day creeps closer, scrutiny of the Coalition's plans is increasing and will only intensify after Cup Day.

It's a real test for the opposition, which has managed to keep its infamous internal woes in-check.

How it manages the unpredictable twists and turns of the campaign in the weeks to come could be the difference between a big win, minority government or a loss.

With Labor trying to distance itself from its previous leaders and the budget restricting spending, expect the government's campaign to seize on any Liberal stumbles.

Labor is trying to paint the Coalition, and One Nation, as a dangerous risk to Victoria.

The Coalition will continue to frame this election as a referendum on the state government's performance, citing mountains of debt, corruption concerns and high crime.

And then there's One Nation, which argues both sides have failed.

The fact the party is attracting at least one in five voters will mean no seat can be easily predicted, even in the face of the expected big swings against Labor.

Backing a winner on Cup Day might be easier than working out just how much of a disrupter One Nation will be in the Coalition's quest to win office.